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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?% u6 ]* I) u. @" m5 u
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会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。
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其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!
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首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?/ n3 x3 P8 b8 a' u$ e% k
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请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。' V9 M: P% m0 D! t( Q6 A. j/ L
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!/ ^- r+ m9 i6 `
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例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。
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2 i" D, y+ d5 \2 v. K7 i( ^现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?7 A. A m/ ], s2 J, S6 E% R
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我们先来看一个0和的游戏。4 N9 ]4 _) q# Y2 l7 w4 I' [
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玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!9 m8 `0 R/ C6 f
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玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。
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' l: `+ N. n( J& w, C4 Q; F这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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+ ^% e# v) X% r! R* V接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。
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再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。/ Y9 y( ] C2 S5 h8 ~0 g7 ~
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如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。
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& B3 u# ~) P' I, }- ?/ }5 q但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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8 U) r6 M( E5 S) X. ?9 S% T: p' u下注比例 本金结果* b( S1 j& p- O: \3 a7 V% l
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0.1% 1.001902
* A X! ?! F* r" [' Z9 Q/ f5 s; Z3 [; K8 _/ c( L
0.2% 1.0036062 u, V$ D7 J [$ J9 j- l
0 @' ~- ], B6 E: X& O8 g" N+ q
0.3% 1.005113 w: J3 R# j% Z" O* _- x9 M, @! j
& Z; C/ Z3 L1 K' {7 q0.4% 1.006421
( H! B$ O8 g3 B5 Q
: S% h6 p! Q- r( E4 U* n0.5% 1.007528) t9 z. u3 [2 K7 S5 `
+ B' \6 | _3 _5 H/ t' Y7 r0.6% 1.008435
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0.7% 1.009142( R! Y! l/ G2 f+ r1 q2 S: c
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0.8% 1.009646
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g! S' V8 |- P% Q- P2 F& j0.9% 1.009949
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1.0% 1.01005. G" e' q$ B, C0 U9 @! Z
% Z+ V |1 y- o0 p4 ]8 Y1.1% 1.009949
! R, v3 a" z3 E$ @
: l) s2 u* j. i: L; T w: |/ K1.2% 1.009646) B- B( t D4 Y( R+ a. c( j* p _0 f
/ J' D& J; M: o5 E1.3% 1.009142
$ j3 F, D% S/ E X
$ v/ Z+ ?+ Z( P5 N- {& X7 C1.4% 1.008435
# q+ u# {9 m! K+ z' y+ A4 @+ r$ b& S; Q' f
1.5% 1.0075286 Q& ]# _* n+ K' G
7 G; j z* Z2 m. w/ E1.6% 1.00642' T& t5 v) B8 @% O: M' c+ ]. ^% O& s7 B
a& E# B& u* c: U4 }1.7% 1.005112
9 m. v# J3 D0 r4 ]1 }+ x& H7 y
9 e( R V4 _) R1.8% 1.003605
. X/ z. h; Z# _9 f9 g+ r+ T0 Z: d! _6 @3 B- E, ~( [
1.9% 1.0019$ M/ E. D, @, l' Z ~6 |: W1 G) w
3 I" X) b1 M7 S5 o2 j3 r& l2.0% 0.999997
: B8 S. e K: t; Z/ ~, u
* Q7 @2 T5 k) ~8 {) o: D6 Y2.1% 0.9978992 b$ }: [: m% i$ y
. Q% ~" X6 F8 I: Y: R, r2.2% 0.9956055 x/ J# f0 V/ N# W
; N' }7 V w% \- u6 f& [, t2.3% 0.9931184 m7 y3 j# Q/ k/ _+ Q9 }! P
1 i: J* @: ^4 ^' c; Y" j$ I2.4% 0.990439, f1 ~& L3 T" g6 D2 E8 h
$ O9 a- R6 _2 S
2.5% 0.987569; o* S- ~! R# n. A7 D" w7 B$ S
3 Y9 F; a; E' O* r* J, k% E2.6% 0.98451- x$ \7 T& f! V5 s' {
# r+ R& B' n! ]; K9 P2.7% 0.9812646 }" z3 n$ B9 ]5 u9 j
% ]# \1 d2 Q a4 n* X& P2.8% 0.977833$ o5 x& I' m% F0 L! X5 z9 |
. s& |( Q4 ?! }# j2.9% 0.974219
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3.0% 0.970424
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) {3 Q" N6 Z6 N5 Z# |2 j从上表可以得到一些结论:; D- r6 M; e: }* A2 z! }
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1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利: l* }6 P- G( t: t/ T! ~/ r( N
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!9 f) b1 w+ t% _( R2 f; n, B0 H( P8 ~- Q! K
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3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈. o1 p6 A% M5 \3 k1 Z5 u: t8 X
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凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...
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; {9 w% L& l( u/ l5 V然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。5 D; K$ m- P8 l/ K3 a1 e
4 c$ w8 k; G+ v. ?$ l1 l% }以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。" m) V' J9 w/ }& c7 [% I
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