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[lastpost] => 2652625 以太坊现货ETF的里程碑(转) 1716771275 22301
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历史长河的逆流,正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。 F; y& J0 G: P' D( k
J" K% }5 [# P1 o许多朋友很不理解,为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4,不仅多数大宗价
, d& t! ~# G7 d7 c B8 N6 ?0 ~- n7 T J* Q5 j0 U J
格在上涨,而且,类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速9 o4 _4 X" c6 L
: `, b6 q" [1 H7 k2 l3 T: k% ^
猛涨(黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%,比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%)?3 R. Q! T" J" w ?, X$ ?* P" F( f
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对此进行回答,之于事后解释,机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。
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这样的答案,错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑,逻辑主次不分。
# }# l0 j7 x* }' X. }# U6 u% C/ @) t$ D* o I* ]9 A5 a
比如美联储预期要降息这一解释,要知道,从2022年3月美联储启动疯
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' }8 F- O; h; s0 @4 Q% w狂加息至今,美联储的事实降息一次也没有,明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加
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了525多个基点——但是,在这一疯狂加息的区间,从2022年3月开始,) N6 a6 l6 k4 a) u" _$ R. f
% E' D: O3 g. @) c9 K1 _黄金价格是大幅上涨的,比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。
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当然,近期中东危机的升级信号,这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉1 r/ I8 w% I m7 T/ e' I5 T4 e
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升,但这事实依然无法解释,为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超+ M2 g8 q) H# n& X% d% x' q! j
& |+ R5 @$ z4 X: Z! H高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。! u% q& \% v$ ]! }- {0 g
' h+ z, |2 _. x$ S% w$ c回答这一切,追溯这一切的逻辑源起,必须进行宏观升维,必须将其置
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" Z- d4 _: ~& O于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资: b/ T; X- V% C7 }
1 K- X) I0 o( V产价格走势的研判逻辑源起,这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著& f5 N3 b* y' S
( X' x" x% |' [( J+ ^
跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。! W$ P% Y" ^; ]2 f! U+ Q
% }/ Y7 m9 z( e之于大历史周期,过去两年,全球化共识在加速撕裂,且这一加速撕裂之
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. h( E' E/ ]) P i于中长期,本质是不可逆的(当然,不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性)。
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而之于逻辑派生,全球化共识的加速撕裂,必然会派生出全球货币共识的加% o5 e* `4 f4 O) x& j2 y
4 t! J5 g0 R+ b3 \
速崩裂,尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。* R( @, |' W7 y( J% }/ Y2 ~
- S! L/ X& P+ Z9 i5 w- k1 a确认中美货币正在加速撕裂,除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外(与1 {- `1 u% G9 P" }* }& S/ A
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全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算),还有更重要的维度,且这一更重
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要的维度,事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。
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