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[lastpost] => 2799407 今日虚拟币市场，全面回暖上涨 1769050607 22301
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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' A4 B& O _) C& _衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
1 r5 F- \. Y, q美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金) T4 V: H$ _ v. x [- [
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。7 A& {& |6 R( q: U1 b& E) _9 G a; g/ \
' ]. U: H3 @- r) w' l& h9 B! b. d过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益$ d! {( Q* v. W- g
/ v1 W3 q) u2 _. W3 [) F% i7 m; Z& F率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。% y: B# }+ Y6 X
4 z4 |+ z! i4 {然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更# P& q# _) l5 L# Z
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是表示：
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0 [+ b7 R0 y/ r9 a1 a, J6 G x这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。' X9 i2 B, o! W% Q( W! v# W( t$ {" {9 a
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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7 q( u+ a" f1 Y3 D& `- ?特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史# o2 e z/ v, P# s7 e
! q7 m# T4 I3 i标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。- M; T4 ^7 |0 V+ P4 l7 D
. T# Z, h& s! l3 ?9 c/ F8 V周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债8 m$ L0 ?9 X* t. B4 P
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收益率冲高回落。
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。$ i! q& \7 E0 C/ ^3 ?) r' C
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。; Z1 u8 i0 w) X- @# F
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& D( ~0 D" C( j- Z& n3 c& W) MLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，/ G9 }0 M/ x/ }1 T& x ~) o: L( L. ~
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去5 S5 w( \, D' R1 H A/ {9 ?
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。$ }- t& R& ^" k$ Q' t
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"' D: w& c$ a( o8 d5 _# {
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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