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[lastpost] => 2799617 比特币价格盘整,市场情绪再次崩溃!能否反弹至 10 万美元?(转) 1769100551 叫我十三
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币与 3 万亿美元美国债务——现在是购买 BTC 的时候了吗?(转)
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雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 警告称,美国债务可能会使与美元挂钩的财富贬值。
( F3 T3 P% s5 U# U加密货币领导者将财政混乱视为 BTC 的看涨催化剂。7 u q) ?- [3 E4 o
比特币[BTC]随着 7 月 3 日税收和支出法案通过后美国债务问题成为头条新闻,加密货币推特上出现了大量看涨言论。8 ?% b& c6 t3 H3 W5 F& y
/ ^1 ?/ ?3 \. ~/ ~! p, [+ `0 I$ F: D根据 估计,预计该法案将在未来10年内增加3万多亿美元。, n) z6 ], |3 u5 @
" S1 F8 l" _, d. Q1 Q1 z* c: F但是,对冲基金桥水基金创始人雷·达利奥著名的 如果该法案按原样实施,债务可能会失控。
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- o# g7 L: X* m( i他警告说,未来10年内,普通美国家庭的债务负担可能变得难以承受。. [( w' V% |. G' a: r2 ], f2 q0 D
- B' B: j* P" L/ Q: S$ J/ |) h/ Q可能的后果是什么?增税、削减ZF支出或增加印钞。这可能会削弱美元的价值,并损害那些依赖美元来保住财富的人。
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" ~) [9 n# Z" j: R+ ]4 z他表示,5 b$ x5 g6 o5 q& n3 r
% f- b$ f( z, D5 ~9 V“这种印钞和贬值行为对于那些将债券作为财富储备的人来说并不好,而对债券和美国信贷市场不利的事情对每个人来说都是不利的。”
7 H4 U& D% s6 m3 D6 H" W' Z; v2 |. G
BTC 的完美风暴?4 P$ F& y G6 b$ j- d7 a1 X" L" U
加密货币领袖声称,这种可能的财政混乱和后果正是比特币存在的原因。. A4 K k( m, {1 P' s
9 D1 m7 F- w5 y作为一种固定供应的数字资产,与美元等传统货币相比,它成为一种相对较好的价值储存手段。/ h* g/ u: D& ~. Q1 w
1 P% D# q- C5 b' H/ W9 K/ F2 E- l这些货币供应量无限,由各国央行随意印制。简而言之,BTC、黄金和其他稀缺商品的需求量将会很大。* G4 C7 u9 N7 ] U4 a6 T8 `
' i3 Q' B Y' x! a8 M4 o0 G9 aBitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 对 Dalio 的警告作出回应 敦促用户“购买比特币”。8 e( Y. i9 I2 [. H& y- `
* v( Q* i0 w8 \; C
Real Vision 的 Raoul Pal 也赞同 Hougan 的观点,添加在这种贬值情况下,只有技术和加密货币才是更好的对冲工具。
1 K0 s* {5 ^; ]* b6 ^* e# c/ ^
2 z: r+ w, h8 p! s- x+ P; b“在长期牛市中,贬值对冲只有两种表现显著优异:科技和加密货币。”6 V- Z' G7 r8 q
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尽管达利欧公开表示承认与拥有一些 BTC 相比,他更倾向于黄金。1 I D/ L7 \: s1 x2 g4 H2 O- x
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他表示,追踪黄金价格走势更容易,尤其是在冲突期间。但他发现追踪比特币价格走势却很难,因此得出结论,比特币仍然是一种投机行为。1 X& ]3 x8 r9 l h
/ L; L& y" W+ ~" R& K0 Y然而,对贝莱德的拉里·芬克来说,BTC 是数字黄金。事实上,他警告今年 4 月,如果财政债务得不到管理,人民币很容易取代美元成为世界储备货币。
+ g7 [* @! z1 H' h9 m: A a3 E$ H) Y, o+ P2 E5 V
即便如此,财政部长斯科特·贝森特淡化与支出法案相关的债务问题。7 j6 Z$ R; v; R. W
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“我们的 GDP 增长速度快于债务增长速度,这种趋势将持续到总统剩余的任期。”
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4 Z, c+ y# Z/ y: ~0 _/ N) E8 |与此同时,Coinbase 分析师警告“大美丽法案”将债务上限提高了 5 万亿美元。
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8 [0 F! t, ?1 \' s6 k结果,美国财政部可能会补充(从市场借钱)其主要现金账户或TGA(国库普通账户),并挤压流动性,拖累包括BTC在内的风险资产。
+ {4 b& I( b: f
% g% y* Y: l D- K* ]1 c“TGA 的补充可能会在短期内消耗大盘的流动性,对所有风险资产构成明显的下行风险。”
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