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[lastpost] => 2813889 Solana 市值超越以太坊，跻身万亿美元市场，新的王者即将诞生？（转） 1773269384 whywhy
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[虚拟币交流]
以太坊预测转向看涨：第三季度可能达到 3000 美元吗？（转）
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随着 345 万 ETH 累计价格接近 2,500 美元，以太坊预测获得看涨权重。这是否加强了 ETH 在第三季度突破 3000 美元的理由？( U* K% u4 c+ ~
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以太坊[ETH]第三季度开始强劲反弹，在不到一周的时间内收复了两个主要阻力位。0 I7 ^: b0 G, V$ o$ }, Z% U
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毫不奇怪，这种抛物线走势会促使交易员大量做空，其中 60% 的交易所头寸倾向于看跌。# f- D8 }2 k/ d `% }* s
: x3 y/ e, t3 k# a6 K: g; J1 i8 y要么是空头抢先拒绝，要么是他们低估了 ETH 冲动走势背后的力量。据 AMBCrypto 称，此次僵局的进展可能会影响未来一周以太坊的预测。8 W. b% O$ ?) ~8 m
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第三季度以太坊预测的分歧7 C% ~' p% w' O' J H- x
有趣的是，以太坊上涨近 7% 至 2,620 美元并非只是又一次反弹。相反，这是对上周 2.4 万美元下方窄幅区间的技术突破。
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- s" t2 A9 ^) ~) m* W该区间是在 ETH 于 6 月 22 日跌至数月低点 2,114 美元后形成的。
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) z4 ]8 l8 X, v- M. X% ]ETH 在不到 20 个交易日内累计上涨近 23%。通常情况下，这种持续的盘整阶段会成为持续上涨的跳板。
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但背景很重要。在 5 月至 6 月的周期中，类似的以太坊预测在 2.8 万美元时就失败了，未能突破 3000 美元。# v7 t/ b2 J: s+ ~1 n7 o) Q6 {0 f1 s
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随之而来的是急剧的去杠杆事件，导致 ETH 在不到两周的时间内下跌了 20%。8 d8 w! M( d4 P8 Q
" Y& n3 p; |( O, ^* S快进到现在，以太坊的未平仓合约（OI）为 365 亿美元，抓挠回到 6 月中旬 417.5 亿美元的高点，就在那场大规模清算潮之前。
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因此，空头纷纷涌入各大交易所，预期市场将再次出现上涨，这并不令人意外。) r& `' ]+ H( Y c3 r. |
# @8 N) k* P( P- T3 f但这次的关键分歧是否会成为催化剂，证明空头过于倾向于不再适用的叙述——这可能会重新调整以太坊未来的预测？" R3 t+ b/ D! ^% X! b9 j: \2 F J e* p
; q2 e( K0 F+ H+ o/ v# wETH 奠定了坚实的基础
; u, w; k# {/ d. G( |( G以太坊在七月份的开始并不平静。在本月第一天大幅下跌 3.2% 之后，E第二天，TH 股价迅速反弹，上涨 6.86%，引发了典型的空头挤压。
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. m+ @( U9 @" |7 O* |+ p/ R至关重要的是，以太坊预测的反弹不仅仅是由 ETH/BTC 比率的 3.78% 飙升所推动的。% N) J. {4 I: L" w k
3 C& ]0 Z& Y3 z, J* L8 o# q8 F( Q& k来自 Glassnode 的链上数据亮点2,513 美元至 2,536 美元的区间是主要需求区域，该水平已积累超过 345 万 ETH，这标志着 ETH 成为数月来最强劲的支撑区之一。9 z& B' u, k' A' U
. L4 K9 |' k6 ?8 C有证据表明，现货 ETH ETF流入量急剧飙升7 月 3 日，该片上映票房达到 1.48 亿美元，创下近一个月以来单日最高纪录。 `2 a+ ^/ ] J
. p( l& p( X* \事实上，7 月份 ETF 总流入量目前已达到 3 亿美元，凸显了现货需求的稳步增长。
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这种分歧很重要。/ z# r( ]4 {& f6 Q+ E, O$ e+ H
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将阻力位转化为支撑位是收复高点的第一步。随着现货资金流入的增加，以太坊的预测似乎稳步迈向其 3000 美元的目标，并且随着第三季度的展开，以太坊可能还会进一步上涨。
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