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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
: w# T1 w- j; x. l- f, B/ M) m( J     7 R& T" g) s) w# v+ R
     初盘高水,豪门要防冷- P# s7 C9 H" M/ e/ F3 G. v
       ! w; i5 ~! i$ ]1 n
     
$ p# O, j# H3 q: d: L     09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:' D$ r) _4 {6 P! n3 w# A. X
     英超主队
$ c3 _1 g& n8 V$ }6 B) v$ x6 M* e     胜:11场 79%
4 D6 w1 T  Z! g3 [6 }& s& s     平:2场 14%
7 K! p9 V9 p' K     负:1场 7%
9 a+ c) Z/ Y* ?' M# \, O6 ?     9 J5 |% }( m1 u
     通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
# k2 |) S" F7 u( |8 W3 F     . e( w+ r: B9 a$ p, Y
     一、初盘阶段$ N" s: i2 X" H- p& p
     
7 {$ C3 P- Z  m8 D* {$ V+ X. Z0 ^" u     具体到水位如下:
% G+ F3 G2 B: b) K     初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
3 |: D" K* `" o5 M! T     初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平, r, @) B  r+ s2 A$ r
     初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平, V) L6 l* o4 X7 f  E
     * q  D% c5 _% e* q
     分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
" J2 B; L" Z/ D3 `: p, z1 N     
% m8 X; {: r2 `( a     维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.002 K( q, u3 V( y( R1 B$ e4 w0 }+ ^
     热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.025 k9 c! D* X! ~2 T7 F7 A
     热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
9 k$ H! Z5 {' W     
: u/ f  y* c- a5 m4 c. t3 {     初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
( R7 ~4 N! I+ P; m6 T     初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。
- Z' ^; r$ d. D% @, B% C9 `% S     
7 C. W3 b6 u. a& t, k" k     二、临场阶段8 ~$ U" C0 u" e! O1 A$ p* b! i
     $ w8 i  P: H% j+ k+ Y6 i. r" n( b
     具体到盘口如下:
% R1 I; |2 a( e     临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜  N* |7 R8 i9 W) F% v& Q" c7 Y. l
     临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平/ C+ z7 L1 {9 h! x
     分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:( Q0 u. y9 U# ^+ \* v: p% h1 L
     
) X2 j- Q  T) _2 f% h     热刺VS伯恩利
, v  ~0 u  [0 n' P1 \: X% j8 W     初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00$ }  a6 u" z1 O% e3 U
     终盘:0.77球半1.09! H3 I( a* x' t$ T# _
     
7 G: N- K0 z/ g- V: W, A     临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
8 s5 F' j9 {: A- F3 n5 L     
2 t+ {- k8 ]# g9 n! v     三、球队表现+ T; @8 R8 x+ L& m
       s- J: R6 C, E
     在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
' E9 x! F+ g2 `& }     ( b' P. {) C( X, d2 b+ }
     四、投注要点. o  Q. \' d2 G2 q
     
. a- T/ N* E; X( r9 j4 q* f     要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
$ Y- _5 E" H# |% N     要点2:初盘中水,重点防平$ V) |9 Y0 n9 i1 D, i6 r
     要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
9 p- o& c% I' _  L     要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
& O+ I6 l$ [9 {. f9 V9 }; A% j4 o     要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低/ |3 f7 G  ?# c, _
     要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
7 i  x: u- {) v! V7 y# G     要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
% i' n' p9 b; [  E  [$ U     : M% R+ _  K% K0 j* r
     对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
2 _0 W' G; L5 B! P5 S     对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方& S+ s! c! e) m9 e+ e
     面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。$ U2 \" Q3 X2 ~1 P5 R) Y- @
           
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