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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
& v9 i' H( o4 ^* W2 T 3 X( `/ t! C A+ P
初盘高水,豪门要防冷
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|: N9 H k9 l) I8 H0 t, H$ E 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:$ Z5 E- F* U. N) ^4 A8 U
英超主队+ y: h& T/ {0 f* \6 q- P v
胜:11场 79%
4 t+ w5 I. T8 v# B 平:2场 14%
2 A" b9 R% Y* o8 s7 `' F6 G 负:1场 7%
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+ `. N' E, c: r. z9 e) x 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。
9 t7 k: z! ]* a
/ _0 n. J; E: [ 一、初盘阶段& ~8 E8 D8 D! j( ]
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具体到水位如下:
& s+ e& l. F: N% w 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
/ ~$ V8 h4 l" r# f( R* [ 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
0 B. b6 A& G* C2 } w) x 初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平
" R4 ?1 _) Q( o1 w$ o( s c1 d
6 [% s9 \5 m) m 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:- f1 ^! f: d" m! s9 {) ^
& E% n' e, W- e 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
( T; ]9 B9 v8 i9 P5 m9 t- [! F5 I 热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
- X+ P7 ~: {- W, Z) ? 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00
g( M& Z$ {5 _' n( V, z' p
. V+ J T# M6 S5 }$ i* S8 x 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
+ k3 A" G$ F4 ]4 ]7 ~$ j n 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。' j" ~ T8 g+ Z ? W
5 ?) E, z6 k2 G3 m; [" H5 S) o
二、临场阶段8 i6 n$ R) _/ t! x, h
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具体到盘口如下:
) Z" q: Q* S" h) q+ a 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜 l1 c) [1 w, U# s- G; x, J4 U: v* P
临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
+ x# z8 H" C o3 o/ \- c( O* B( ]- t 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
$ v" d1 D) t0 i6 f$ y
$ |0 a6 B$ A8 L 热刺VS伯恩利/ g; s7 Q- ^( J+ D# R0 G+ D
初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00" H1 H2 g! `% v0 ` F
终盘:0.77球半1.09! [1 n) A4 j; J: T$ O1 M# W* J. X( V
x/ g/ ~& d$ @
临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。# P# _, q0 R( l+ c- }
2 v/ K4 v6 u$ Z( V0 E& B 三、球队表现0 J8 N; p) a1 V0 g
& {- `" I7 V( n4 d$ P, f
在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。: M0 ~2 ]: n6 K" p$ b0 {
) Y: U$ U) i7 C( i- ^6 S# Z2 l 四、投注要点
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要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证5 V' z& g; z' v$ \
要点2:初盘中水,重点防平
# B$ t$ @9 H! b- f; _5 N) h, C. t 要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
$ {6 }+ t& P: z5 c! V! q4 K5 E# H 要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
2 ^( ? |: |, h1 A4 j6 _; M 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
5 ^% p: L9 x ]- Z& A 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任! v* ^9 j0 v& a1 G
要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
3 ~% v7 w! g3 e) n5 n0 y! u 1 {4 |5 ]! o$ O# p: [8 {# G
对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
# x8 e# R1 x/ v T) t( J9 D) y- ] 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方
" H) g# p0 v! t" _7 h: I 面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。" } b- R5 G4 I, {( p/ n
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