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一、我们先假设一个抽样数W={W(ij)|i,j∈N}, W(ij)就是比赛的进球结果,i,j分别表示主客队的进球数。
+ u+ J4 r5 J/ i/ l8 w S" {. U/ y5 |那么,平局、主胜、客胜就有以下表达式:
6 t* ?& \% {9 g$ G+ XA(d) = {W(ij)|i=j, i∈N, j∈N}2 r& i. Z J+ s: K2 D& x/ B1 i y
A(h) = {W(ij)|i>j, i∈N, j∈N}, Q1 W# i. @3 j; x
A(a) = {W(ij)|i 接着我们引入一个符号P(i)表示平胜负的概率,P(Ai)∈[0,1]:2 Z7 [& g7 u/ ?3 ~6 ?5 r
P(i)=P(Ai), i∈{0, 1, 2}
2 E" M2 R. p) h# {二、首先来说说平手盘(即0:0Handicaps或我们经常在国外上看到的(Moneyline): U& v* B. ?( `, c
假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:- i, n0 _# x, x0 k- O
{b(h) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生! I# A: s+ r+ T# e8 q8 N
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
: D* G4 U0 M3 s: M% f{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生, M6 W- u% s* y$ s
以及: n7 G0 V; p9 r
{b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
$ v2 T7 B" ^/ ^) ~R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生+ [( V/ C3 E3 V2 t4 F1 t% V
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
* o7 |" v4 X3 A) R x如果O(h)表示平手盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示平手盘下的客队赔率' X+ m9 h$ w$ U2 h
那么投注主客的期望回报总数分别为6 S j, X$ i0 x: K q
E[R(1)]=P(d)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]4 m% N# x9 c# P5 g2 F2 n' |. m
E[R(2)]=P(d)*b(a)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]1 X0 m: ^" d2 a9 o! F
按照真实赔率(暂不包含庄家优势),我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等* e( o% D# q! M. X( k
E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]=b(h)" D, A9 n# q6 S, L. v
P(d)+p(h)O(h)=1
3 y1 Q9 F5 a: b+ F ^% o2 MO(h)=(1-P(d))/P(h)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算主队赔率的公式
# e7 [# d- O- I- B2 w; DE[R(2)]=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]=b(a)/ i* }! b1 F D S. b" I) W
P(d)+p(a)O(a)=1$ z2 T+ s0 w2 g4 c
O(a)=(1-P(d))/P(a)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算客队赔率的公式# l2 x) Z: t* M5 o0 o5 s9 |% \
在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率(或moneyline),就是在不发生平局结果条件下(就是公式中P(d)=0),主胜客胜概率的倒数
7 G; c3 k% ~$ @' Q/ _; |2 g三、半球盘的计算描述
2 }0 |8 e" Q3 _; c2 E3 [' f接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受半球(1/2:0 Handicaps的情况)" H- F8 y1 I% C/ b
还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
8 Q+ F: `! X1 Q0 ?2 U, a{O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(d)结果发生+ v* C% j ]0 S
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生/ ^# X8 u" }0 n2 \( p4 }
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生8 e. {- K( q3 }
以及1 C9 N- i0 s) C
{0 , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生! p! h) w5 q7 @- A( @8 u
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
- X4 l0 k7 x$ x0 X( ?! G- C0 B{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
! h) C% F5 D3 m" J7 T+ M( t如果O(h)表示受半球盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示客队赔率* T* U2 T" \- N9 a8 q5 Y7 |# g# N
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
$ m! m; |% V* {, Z! `" VE[R(1)]=P(d)*O(h)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]
+ R# M+ E3 k+ t. j" x* f: n' u. UE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)
. h/ Z2 G# l: m假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等! }' `8 _3 E6 U$ {- \0 a# b
E[R(1)]=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=b(h)
& B1 G0 v8 O+ ?" I! I3 eO(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=1" X' ~9 K& J# [
O(h)=1/[P(d)+p(h)]
3 R2 o0 d, \. a' ?3 s1 }E[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)( I% [9 g' a) [
P(a)*O(a)=1$ ]+ @/ }' R7 F+ u$ Q2 z, h0 K
O(a)=1/P(a)" h' Y% a: f3 U' d+ w7 A: n
同样道理可以计算让半球(0:1/2 Handicaps)的亚洲盘赔率2 h7 ^: b" ^4 x4 Z! _" y6 ^
O(h)=1/p(h)
3 f7 V+ B/ s5 x; W% _O(a)=1/[P(d)+p(a)]
9 V* M& _7 F: p% W; f: y! T! j四、平半球盘的计算描述3 C6 K6 S; ^) @* i% l
这个稍复杂一点
- `* u, b. H2 X4 h接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受平半球(1/4:0 Handicaps的情况)% m V) u$ B- `; q/ _- p
还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额计算:
( g: X3 M {! j$ b, Y3 }, P& o# q{[O(h)+1]/2×b(h), 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
# j9 q6 N2 w! Z, u' b: XR(1)={O(h)*b(h), 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
+ R J! }; l$ K8 \{0, 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生) M V. u3 L- ?
以及
3 X" F9 W, t7 J7 T' R; e; j3 N{1/2×b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
2 s! p' H$ z% x3 e: X, ~R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
% A: K& b: }% O( L) `{O(a)*b(a), 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
9 p, V2 [3 y* q6 s! S* ~! l投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
8 o+ R6 J M: EE[R(1)]=P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}×b(h)+P(h)×O(h)×b(h)=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))9 W- l! h; z* ^9 I! }* h6 A
E[R(2)]=1/2×b(a)×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]7 _- k. {' U* H6 F7 H+ A
和上面计算过程相似,得出:
" u, t7 P- q6 [; JE[R(1)]=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))=b(h)0 f" \2 W4 v3 M# G+ I
P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h)=1# M7 R3 N6 P: _. [
O(h)*[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]+1/2*P(d)=10 T9 z& \( C% d! N1 I, r5 m
O(h)=[1-1/2*P(d)]/[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(h))
5 `( N& v: M5 X1 iE[R(2)]=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]=b(a)# [4 L* ]2 m: x, H, o/ j
1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)=16 B0 i) N Z1 R- z2 \1 J. G; T, Y* g
O(a)=[1-1/2×P(d)]/P(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(a)+ J4 r1 m( `5 ^/ M% O1 M6 D
同样主队让平半就分别是
* a6 c$ |$ B% [6 MO(h)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(h), p1 a/ ^; i3 v# i3 D, R
O(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(a))* {+ Z0 E3 U( r8 o3 v. k& }+ k
五、一球、两球等整数盘(这里先暂时说主队让1球的情况,0:1,Handicaps,其它可以类推的), B+ G' D' l( I: K; s. e3 C" J
可以采用类似公式,在(一)中我们分别用A(d)、A(h)、A(a)描述平局、主胜、客胜事件的发生。现在改用另外的符号代替,如B(d)、B(h)、B(a),同时除了平、胜、负概率P(i)(i=d,h,a)外,还需要引入一个一个概率值P(hX)来代表主队赢一球(X=1)、二球(X=2)...的概率,下面来进行演算% e) W+ B! m$ J7 y) E
B(d) = {W(ij)|i=j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}) a: n1 h6 g& S: H
B(h) = {W(ij)|i>j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}
x; y3 j/ I" j* H/ Q9 b, \* xB(a) = {W(ij)|i i,j分别表示主客队的进球数,k代表让球数, n+ m" p- c: d9 i1 V# ?5 A
接着,假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
) G2 n- |5 U G) k( b{b(h)*O(h) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生( W3 S- A. M! u3 c* s( {- z
R(1)={b(h)-O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
: z; T9 g# U. G: H4 L$ ?{0 , 即上面所述的B(a)结果发生
' O- M8 u8 g3 E以及% r- p' z* B$ _. e
{b(a) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生
! [8 q/ k) b# Q# G& w. yR(2)={0, 即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
0 c$ D7 I, T& E b8 Z{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的B(a)结果发生% S f# E" \% \
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为5 L- V' L4 e; e2 H
E[R(1)]=P(h)*b(h)*O(h)+P(h1)*(b(h)-O(h)*b(h))=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]
5 K) A' j; P5 {$ J- ~E[R(2)]=P(h1)*b(a)+(1-P(h))*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))
$ x3 Y8 e4 h4 w( a" X6 L* M假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
5 H x) ~$ e) ?7 G: K6 F- U6 |E[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]=b(h)
- y, g0 Z) \2 M$ rP(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)=1! e) r1 B4 Y* o/ h1 m! |, B1 d$ R
O(h)*(P(h)-P(h1))=1-P(h1)* j2 k9 G7 d" d: ] N" H. I8 Y
O(h)=(1-P(h1))/(P(h)-P(h1)); c9 L4 {' u+ q2 ]9 R" k7 ^
E[R(2)]=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))=b(a)3 ]5 N6 e% e$ u' m; U; K
P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a)=1
% G- a J% l# E' B; c! o4 zO(a)*(1-P(h))=1-P(h1)3 q6 I1 M" Y6 d! w5 m+ Y
O(a)=(1-P(h1))/(1-P(h))& {+ h+ c% A* H* w, m) o
以上(五)部分是让一球的情况,让两球以上整数盘和反过来受让整数盘是可以同样演算的。
7 @* B& G' ?0 f% n, f4 l4 c( ?简单小结一球或整数盘,其实理论的演算过程不难,但是如何准确计算赢整数球的概率(P(hi)就是其中的难点,这已经涉及到如何用相对动态实力差或球差来计算各种赢球概率(是指赢1、2、3...球的概率,也可以说是赢球比分概率)的问题,使用自己数据模型里的数据来计算。 |
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