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[lastpost] => 2746902 立法者为“加密货币周”做准备,比特币出现获利回吐(转) 1751721699 小钱儿
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币,同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为,一旦全球无风险利率出现波动,意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出:“我其实不担心
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衰退,我担心的是金融危机。”
8 a: N/ z% J, C+ {# U2 U9 H美股周五重回涨势,看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复,但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性,尤其是美债的剧烈波动,让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。* P B0 H0 O$ v2 H! K# e; Y# A
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过去一周,美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升,美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看,标普500指数周涨超5%,美债收益
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率回到2月水平,比特币收盘走高,似乎一切如常。
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- p5 h1 k, O! U! ?" Y然而令人不安的是,本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象,正是典型的新兴市场特征,而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国+ r; [3 z0 V) ~$ B& |; F# \
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长债出现如此大的波动,流动性危机似乎就在眼前,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更+ l% U d: [9 I- Z) C( p% D5 m8 c
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是表示:
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率,如果全球无风险利率出现波动,它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见,美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心,也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史, q3 D% a: Q4 R4 [' @
4 _9 I" F8 }) L8 q( Z3 b标准来看,本周都是一个惨烈的交易周,美股像是坐上了过山车,美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了:
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周一,因所谓的乌龙关税消息,美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震,纳指一度低位暴拉10%,美债跳水。$ c- E. e: W- {' T3 [- F2 e& S
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周二,不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望,道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点,标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌,美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。! U2 z! C* k. D. p. g" U
% \1 {+ m: R& R/ U周三,美国暂缓部分关税,三大美股指至少收涨近8%,标普创2008年来最大涨幅,美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债; b/ ^( c5 F' W3 H6 @ \
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收益率冲高回落。: ~* {* c: L1 d- L4 n6 Q# L
0 `% o' ^. n) Q4 \$ l( Q2 R( o周四,全球投资者逃离美国资产,美国股债汇三杀,纳指跌超4%,美元两年来最大日跌,黄金新高。# \; w! Q6 J# d/ E" ^1 ^
) b' Z& C7 }- {/ I周五,美联储暗示或出手,美股反弹收涨,但美债美元的跌势,警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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# K! _) f w. @* N& oLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示:"美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场?毫无疑问,
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' l0 u' s& F- J是的,这正是我们所看到的。"" ~1 r3 W) ^5 S% {! u) d _
& G0 y4 x% @4 G; G根据数据显示,美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金,也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外,几乎从未出现。; \6 r. Q4 @5 \( i- ^5 [1 o
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6 p3 d& k) l3 \0 w8 nRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言:"标普500指数像加密货币一样交易,这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调,但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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