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[lastpost] => 2751286 SpaceX突然挪动价值超1.5亿的比特币，是要抛售？还是只是“打扫钱包”？ 1753633882 天策-瑶娥
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。" N/ P. N4 I( K3 k
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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0 w) E" H- b( h: b4 c {7 d4 V衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
& \8 \3 X$ R& W+ K美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金; C+ ^, {6 P( {! x# N* W
. Q* \1 Z+ S0 X6 M0 u3 t融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。& X1 I8 A+ Z% Z4 q' }& G% s0 l
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益3 G: x" z9 T' w0 v
0 D; q" {7 N1 p+ f; V率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。+ U6 ~: [2 [' {7 b" p5 m. S
+ ], Q2 M4 u, f. b4 a3 O然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国2 J4 U9 J& A" m
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更* _8 {) j& s2 h0 L' [& f2 g
! O6 J$ s3 Y: j是表示：
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( ^& u3 @$ ?. R" W' q& S. R这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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2 c- g% J' g) U. }历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币1 F! j; M: D c% v0 G
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史9 u: j. k, T* e, _" q! m
1 E5 z$ i% ~% \* q5 ^' O+ d; t标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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7 {5 w# l* Y& S/ n, n- f, ~周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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' ~, i1 M; {! [* o& i收益率冲高回落。
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! H% \! N/ `0 [' C: O) O周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。5 ^$ d$ n/ C- U0 a1 K, d+ L) P
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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* a$ d. R7 {1 E! a: k, f eLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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H. M& b; v2 [( h$ J2 \# v7 L' G2 e是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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; `8 ?3 M) l$ J8 w! e根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"5 b0 d3 o: @6 F" j" i3 Z4 y% e
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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