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[lastpost] => 2752166 面对加密做市商的隐秘,Coinwatch 如何带来透明化变革?(转) 1753528548 mattf
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币,同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。% A2 V; J9 k6 t7 u# y
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瑞银认为,一旦全球无风险利率出现波动,意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出:“我其实不担心. B- k7 O7 S+ D6 a) }& l) G
" L, \, E. S3 _ R! z4 ^: _衰退,我担心的是金融危机。”
* o7 v: p H! N3 Q美股周五重回涨势,看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复,但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性,尤其是美债的剧烈波动,让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。- h: f& C& j- O/ a( ?$ R1 J& {
3 {* p$ P5 M8 o( i过去一周,美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升,美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看,标普500指数周涨超5%,美债收益
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率回到2月水平,比特币收盘走高,似乎一切如常。( u9 y7 K. N7 e: X/ v1 a
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然而令人不安的是,本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象,正是典型的新兴市场特征,而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动,流动性危机似乎就在眼前,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更7 \; }6 W- t' U k$ K0 c/ V$ b7 I3 M
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是表示:! C+ `! q2 R6 X9 e# j! y& |6 G3 y
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率,如果全球无风险利率出现波动,它将颠覆所有市场。
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+ v: J" H8 F, v0 D- `, X历史罕见,美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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8 c$ _# c. ?4 {& u特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心,也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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4 n7 g8 l5 ~+ _0 F& ^+ ~8 [标准来看,本周都是一个惨烈的交易周,美股像是坐上了过山车,美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了:
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周一,因所谓的乌龙关税消息,美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震,纳指一度低位暴拉10%,美债跳水。
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周二,不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望,道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点,标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌,美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三,美国暂缓部分关税,三大美股指至少收涨近8%,标普创2008年来最大涨幅,美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。2 u. C, N+ M; x1 ~# y. i% w# l
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周四,全球投资者逃离美国资产,美国股债汇三杀,纳指跌超4%,美元两年来最大日跌,黄金新高。
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% f6 m7 V5 R& A( l6 L- \. [: z0 l周五,美联储暗示或出手,美股反弹收涨,但美债美元的跌势,警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。# y1 C8 p. o' }( f# x# W% x
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示:"美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场?毫无疑问,7 F: B) [) k0 k! w+ i
0 D! h6 ~4 k- W% v: A: c6 v' X" u是的,这正是我们所看到的。"
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1 Q6 E) E; F/ i# d" e根据数据显示,美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金,也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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* w6 j' z1 Q' {2 |6 f/ \年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外,几乎从未出现。7 k7 `# [2 f, u' Y* O
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# `, W A, _! |9 F% ARenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言:"标普500指数像加密货币一样交易,这可能不是好事。"& o( e# V5 {" N2 { {/ v+ s& f
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调,但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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