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[lastpost] => 2752166 面对加密做市商的隐秘，Coinwatch 如何带来透明化变革？（转） 1753528548 mattf
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。% A2 V; J9 k6 t7 u# y
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心. B- k7 O7 S+ D6 a) }& l) G
" L, \, E. S3 _ R! z4 ^: _衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
* o7 v: p H! N3 Q美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。- h: f& C& j- O/ a( ?$ R1 J& {
3 {* p$ P5 M8 o( i过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。( u9 y7 K. N7 e: X/ v1 a
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更7 \; }6 W- t' U k$ K0 c/ V$ b7 I3 M
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是表示：! C+ `! q2 R6 X9 e# j! y& |6 G3 y
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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+ v: J" H8 F, v0 D- `, X历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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8 c$ _# c. ?4 {& u特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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4 n7 g8 l5 ~+ _0 F& ^+ ~8 [标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。2 u. C, N+ M; x1 ~# y. i% w# l
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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% f6 m7 V5 R& A( l6 L- \. [: z0 l周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。# y1 C8 p. o' }( f# x# W% x
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，7 F: B) [) k0 k! w+ i
0 D! h6 ~4 k- W% v: A: c6 v' X" u是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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1 Q6 E) E; F/ i# d" e根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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* w6 j' z1 Q' {2 |6 f/ \年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。7 k7 `# [2 f, u' Y* O
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# `, W A, _! |9 F% ARenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"& o( e# V5 {" N2 { {/ v+ s& f
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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