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[lastpost] => 2754080 卢加诺中本聪雕像失踪,创作者悬赏0.1枚BTC:你能偷雕像,但偷不走信仰 1754584227 天策-瑶娥
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币,同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。$ m: M- U/ s" ]% v+ u- o
+ j: K' K9 \: s7 i9 C瑞银认为,一旦全球无风险利率出现波动,意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出:“我其实不担心
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8 B4 W5 H! s6 d9 ]' d: t衰退,我担心的是金融危机。”4 v: E" i7 ]8 O9 R6 X) z
美股周五重回涨势,看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复,但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性,尤其是美债的剧烈波动,让金$ V1 g$ n1 S& D+ q. T- f
U& d+ ], _$ T6 P融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。, H8 T* B+ T" K- `! A
, p" d# {& l) h% s# X过去一周,美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升,美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看,标普500指数周涨超5%,美债收益
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率回到2月水平,比特币收盘走高,似乎一切如常。+ v# ?- k8 G8 V7 q9 x- t5 T
- f, O# z; |2 Q然而令人不安的是,本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象,正是典型的新兴市场特征,而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国- `7 P' L3 ~: Y P6 h' ^
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长债出现如此大的波动,流动性危机似乎就在眼前,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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x6 M$ M8 J0 o; }3 e2 u是表示:' e: O5 {+ e# P4 [3 l1 U# J8 {/ s, ]
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率,如果全球无风险利率出现波动,它将颠覆所有市场。 o% s* k6 e9 i. v3 `
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历史罕见,美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币: v; q- p/ A& i- T3 B: z
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心,也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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# |) l& i+ t6 V t, C7 T标准来看,本周都是一个惨烈的交易周,美股像是坐上了过山车,美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了:
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周一,因所谓的乌龙关税消息,美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震,纳指一度低位暴拉10%,美债跳水。
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" ^/ ?9 P+ p. X周二,不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望,道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点,标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌,美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。1 M4 G! W j4 ]' y% b
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周三,美国暂缓部分关税,三大美股指至少收涨近8%,标普创2008年来最大涨幅,美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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2 U( g# T3 a9 |: K( ^8 i收益率冲高回落。- u) G1 r( g% [- H- N
# G" P( E* Z8 J周四,全球投资者逃离美国资产,美国股债汇三杀,纳指跌超4%,美元两年来最大日跌,黄金新高。7 D! N( F3 x( ]8 ?3 g5 p. _
9 q! r7 G3 { C3 X周五,美联储暗示或出手,美股反弹收涨,但美债美元的跌势,警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。/ d% r5 ~2 B0 g: ]
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示:"美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场?毫无疑问,
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- X" U, T, b% [是的,这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示,美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金,也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去% V" s5 m- u# o+ U+ h
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外,几乎从未出现。) [1 t' f5 u2 G/ j# i4 V6 V+ t: A
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3 V( t; ^2 z3 y3 M( bRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言:"标普500指数像加密货币一样交易,这可能不是好事。"" W) v: I9 o2 Z ~
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调,但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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