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[lastpost] => 2749744 当加密世界遇上“美元霸权”：USDT市值飙破1600亿美元，稳坐“稳定币之王”宝座！ 1752810655 AOU1888
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6 w; y n0 \* }) r; v 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，' x0 G0 M3 x- a1 Z- ?
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3 t: Z! u9 I; H7 c/ w形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于0 ^! X; S: B9 R
1 v) n3 |$ {' D/ l逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政) N( k7 _4 y% c q) Y" j+ Z+ [. l
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策的确定性。
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5 p' C% `$ g# `) R3 j 中信证券主要观点如下：
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加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。( k3 x! t# ^; F& S1 C
- o3 G# M4 _: S5 n( _, ] 自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。; ^+ \$ \" a* C! a- a
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近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。
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! [6 ^/ j7 ^' }; T% \( s4 m 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现 b$ l+ _+ j1 o* }
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不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。7 t/ T: U+ j3 h0 D
" f/ x( y* _: v# r5 _- u8 f; t 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。5 S- j' w- H) w9 O' H
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从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。( |6 S& y' s+ P3 |2 _' r
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。
7 V4 ]( ` n( `8 c2 l& U
; t8 d7 q! W0 h 由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
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! A0 I' P3 [8 X" z7 J9 }破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。, Q# A% Z- m. u/ v) E) k
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短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。8 A) ^) O# s/ {% [# t
( }! U- B( M$ s% Y8 r# { 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性2 D' |8 | Q# Y* R6 T, h- Y
! N# Y4 }) V" X1 }' p8 ]9 }共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。
- P2 m' [7 c" O% O h
- e$ {& Z; Y$ _ 长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。+ J, q0 ~4 W, `# B, q+ l4 o
4 h. e) z0 |& A 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。7 j: V& L* L- t& W: }2 G8 q; k9 L
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展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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7 C8 N2 y' X/ d& Z ]; h$ D 本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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/ R2 H& O+ w# s3 C# c0 B% g0 E4 }% _; U策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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; ~4 o5 S9 f+ W, [) X @ 风险因素：
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( ^" ^8 m2 e9 s$ {1 L 特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。
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