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i- {) Z3 B e. D, k" Z3 Y- S2 Z N$ f
, q# R" B, U2 {& A* ^; } 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，
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& `4 `, Q4 E+ N- X, z1 D
形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
. P; o. w U9 _( }% z
% {& S2 ]% i+ G逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政4 T1 V9 ^ u" u9 ^( T
4 G3 Z( F4 i6 U1 t! s; B- @策的确定性。" \6 E7 e7 W% S9 G$ e6 W$ d' \
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中信证券主要观点如下：! I" k' G3 C* Q4 z
2 W1 u# m+ Z+ x; N- L 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。" F7 f% f6 l. H
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自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。
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近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。1 c* l' D: n! {% i0 o6 q
b1 G+ I4 T ~ n# f A& [ 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现1 V8 K: S7 `4 Q) D& f1 n0 S
! H; |4 [( ~& n7 `# ~! [不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。- x( S9 q* {- ]% H H
0 I, O u. E |" O0 }( _
加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。
5 q1 S+ X/ K9 k3 l: a
@ O; ]4 K6 |, p; f' x 从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。
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) V+ V* m1 Q0 P 加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。2 _8 v. u$ U0 u' r
- F& e x( r3 j4 t. Z+ b 由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。
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; g0 T f0 ?" Z 短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。1 y% J: L( z" J# D% s
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我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性
/ X+ [7 M% @- [* A
. w7 j) ^6 F) O6 Z共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。- a: d+ Y& ?3 r" A' K, O3 g1 {
1 @5 s6 c7 p& }: t* `1 V6 \7 Q
长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。( R8 u6 k# L! Y
. i* |3 ?- ^5 y, V- w* D5 D 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
7 X ?/ ]# u% `5 B* M
, m8 b( K7 e; i势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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5 g3 ` F$ q3 x0 p" Z6 p 展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。( T9 }) Q3 ]! s# Y- t5 E- p, B) B8 e* T
7 S' s$ ?- w) B$ I+ ~
本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
: c" t0 p; a' b4 d4 d2 O8 u: I C# `) j. S; Q
策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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9 V2 C6 [' f7 e. W/ W 风险因素：' ]) k& V( }" K5 |
J$ Y/ E- K( L6 K' P9 i" ? 特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。- u! F s. k/ |
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