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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。, H" r7 K2 x/ v" @' n
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9 G3 g9 a, K, _& [0 @! X8 Q0 v西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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6 r" l1 B( B% A( M3 W  U以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:0 [- T* @0 p) h: s& U3 _
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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5 p7 Q9 F* D4 R  J' Z很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?5 _6 j# X: `4 O3 J2 q& T# X2 b9 E

1 ?4 x# g4 C) A1 {: @答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)2 S5 Q# K: \$ @* b3 k4 a( m- H
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+ e0 S8 T; v/ \$ d2 {- r: e以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?; m6 M7 C  B: \2 g9 F

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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。( e2 ~- G% F+ D2 k$ ~( K
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增值8 r$ ?  J/ C: k: W2 f

$ G- S7 O+ n7 P/ v/ U# p7 [许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。/ e  j7 H- q8 H2 s" `
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?* J3 P: s, [$ u  g- t9 c. g/ w
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么: Q2 d0 z- N6 L
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润- K3 O! `  N" R, p9 I2 Z# N
60%的机会你会一无所有, J; x2 d6 D& Y) c  w3 r& [
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
6 [. f: W4 G+ Z* W由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。: v% o0 L8 B6 @4 s  m2 P/ K' z; D

% [$ Y6 H( o9 e* |4 h  x+ Q: e' Y基于增值的投注
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% O" b( t, @1 S1 ]5 G凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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+ Q  r* s+ F; w, R公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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' P5 e- C* I" c- H+ cA=博彩资金% _; r. X2 |  Z
P=获胜机会
; }$ g% o4 S, S( l) ^6 mO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)5 C0 t) H) g% h  K; A
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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$ f# p1 d0 w* i# A2 X6 q9 _好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)3 \6 M6 P7 B+ \$ X
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A=09 n) J$ n5 B3 e: m5 \1 B& R; P# A9 q

* C' n' |9 X7 h6 ?5 J0 g% Y9 y2 f  ]结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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# q- C# \, o$ q" u/ OA=0.16 X& Z5 ]9 K  U2 r+ ?
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去- p; E% B5 N% ^4 v1 J
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)8 n/ @- ^+ i, t; J  K' X3 Y1 Q1 w

! Z  G" O( @4 ?  sA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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" P* [/ @7 {; G: Q" u/ ~! fA= -0.2 " q# `* o# \0 j0 K/ ]

" q$ B) t/ E# Q& a8 q" e9 L& X结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好0 }3 ^% ?; ]) b; ~7 }# o
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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