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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。& w; |: [4 ~$ |+ n7 P8 w/ L
# G5 H' F5 m. f8 M% ?
" p/ f1 H& k. ?8 d3 n
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
& Q/ _) |5 @/ x7 x1 V
% J+ G/ a" _/ A! ?$ V以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:" Y+ e. `/ }# g; e& O
5 u" _0 Y$ G& i: c
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 8 I6 Z+ T7 B P6 d8 _' k% b
' \6 P1 |4 I) z% F. |, K
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?. F- x+ e9 i& J) Q( R7 ]0 a( v9 N
* w* E+ }2 g, K5 v- \3 _' b
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)/ ^7 G) V+ o4 L# F- m9 A; B6 O
- }8 T9 ]- n0 X
9 \4 r3 k# D/ D以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
$ i, d- m5 D; l3 m2 R9 l4 ]( N3 w) k) H5 h* D- H/ M9 ]
7 z* V; J0 V9 n8 ~5 y盈利可能性+ e2 [0 x5 _# e U/ ^; S0 G
0 s: h) n0 _! D6 f* X
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。& p6 U1 a& }1 l4 Z6 t( D: E% ~- I! \( c6 u
/ Y# s& [6 m \& Q- Q9 `, e) R增值
* |1 j1 R# V; P6 b' k- J% {$ E2 b+ i/ R# F' H, e7 A
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。, W. _3 X* a( x; I1 t, Q
' o5 ]* u2 E" j你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
( _6 x( w" F a0 k: U, |' f2 y* c: D' m5 X
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 % s1 D2 t; _5 x2 g& T
) c; v6 `- U. n% v0 e$ p正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么* l. q7 a+ q5 B; H) O( e
+ _& t5 l% q- c$ r$ t
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润( o3 b7 C. S/ {2 I. K
60%的机会你会一无所有
" K5 K# z @0 h+ _8 T& u f预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
7 W* P* O( P# Y6 o% X8 c由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。2 Z* l) G9 G9 J
" B' O; z2 r/ T# P$ `- }7 w增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。* [# ?. G% [4 u Y: T' |7 _3 A- r
3 ?8 q: `' D( [( e7 _3 h. M基于增值的投注
2 X+ e8 q8 P/ K$ `8 W) F# s4 w; X$ s* h1 i3 R6 H: K( L! M' A. P
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
. N: }4 y* h: D) H; J4 \3 r$ \+ \) m4 Q" {
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)& C% v7 _9 R) P5 m
, O/ m* @9 v+ W F+ v9 w! v, xA=博彩资金
7 m& T$ u9 z V; K) g v5 D: X' ?P=获胜机会
5 f2 c, O5 y2 e2 Z% f2 [5 F( ~O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)7 `/ a8 M) G& H2 I* Z. e3 }
! d1 w, q$ H( J9 x' V首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
+ J d+ e' ~" u' {$ [6 R$ v4 M% T0 C
' C# q, I$ g" u( D. Y: E好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
9 R# H e( `& \' S5 P/ M; Y3 \8 p/ r$ U% e' i
1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)8 ~2 H, c9 [( R' k
; T- }' K4 M4 y8 U. K( Q+ mA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
9 G9 }' L; _3 F
4 ~" I/ n( t* q3 |A=08 N8 Q* V: ~; _& b, g
* J0 I# v% B4 f/ B9 d结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢9 p3 o& M) ~0 w# `$ T0 x ^5 H: i
) P* K8 Q' u" q# N2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)3 R3 `$ H& }# W0 R
8 I* j' [8 |* N( n
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
; i7 d8 J6 _" H$ k' Y0 {$ O+ {6 b5 Y. \) u D5 e+ }
A=0.1
. X" e u0 a# d G* B
+ p0 T$ l5 q( W结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
0 }2 q1 T5 S& s- r' N1 N6 O4 u+ F
5 l4 i! _2 b1 Z% D$ X& u- [: W% ?3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
, J4 \" s1 S# P8 m; x, y6 d, x$ Z
" {& |& H, R# a1 @: @A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1). W& q; p" q- I) y0 T& b; P
: X7 C1 a( x+ `. [4 v. aA= -0.2
: y& a( N, R/ n1 Z2 v
7 a% N' D; J9 _" ~5 s结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好) h& h8 G8 c( K: X
2 g% c5 E2 g& Y
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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