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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。- ]0 Z2 g- P1 y& n) I, K) @6 f
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% H# @( _$ x _. U0 G& G# W西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
) c9 k9 \6 [! Y8 q& a% K' B7 `0 e
0 |" }' X8 B6 M4 o& `: `6 `以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
$ U7 A, u# P1 Q, B* \' r# W1 W: ]) }
/ ]) C" J1 W( ?9 `) Z皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
4 F" Z& E3 y5 V" O3 v# j/ \; C% v) j0 X1 R/ H- Z6 U: ~6 z, r
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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. ~' A$ o) }/ q' f9 X: B4 } g: \答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)# @* ~ Y# f: m% `# }. P4 S4 i
/ {$ |6 t. f% N. q8 }* T
3 R$ X' {' A! b) s w7 D* v @以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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" `+ @5 r7 @) W/ ~& F4 @7 l! @盈利可能性3 T5 F2 R# z" \8 ]. g& u" A% T
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。2 }) F4 e: C$ H0 h0 p6 n
! t' K# H6 A0 G( |2 e增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。, |0 {. w: @! ^8 E4 O
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?' y" r' [2 }6 E9 l" p. V6 K; r/ u
7 Z8 g% l# @3 A# b" @ }8 S! ~1 sa) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
) M. I# q" ^2 P8 k3 _
8 U6 X8 y1 {& m2 d, A8 t正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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* [" o9 m' S3 k( c2 ?% ~6 R- O- t40%的机会你会收到150元的利润! k' i1 E9 N8 d3 M6 m* F5 w
60%的机会你会一无所有7 Y( c0 `1 W4 g4 T$ E; S6 V
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
6 r7 D A7 Q5 G! z$ G由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
4 f2 Z" Q6 s+ t" f& R7 I( [$ U8 K3 ^9 X% G# l/ P: b
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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% T" e: ^5 {1 v0 Q# A基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。( g" L! j" k2 O8 X. u4 y
* f# G7 K3 {; X& o3 q) ^公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
T# C3 z' c$ i) O' x3 `
+ K$ g6 l/ {% p$ V0 ?! m# ^A=博彩资金
+ H: M9 `3 o, t5 h3 }9 JP=获胜机会% x* u9 y; W! \
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)) J! S; S8 x' D; a. R/ ?
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
8 ~; f: K, @* ~2 x N7 ^" Y& j
5 Z& L5 r3 ?! j J8 V9 Q3 c2 w6 C好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)! a" }+ j2 J6 V- e, l+ n
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A=0( x" ~ S5 X7 u6 I& O
* X& i& L- h' i. }结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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5 P5 c1 ?( }0 h3 V1 G$ } z2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
: ]" Z. i+ f& q; X+ V: {( x& `% R. P$ ?' h) @
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)3 x+ W3 T% h8 r6 x
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A=0.16 N: U/ ~8 Q+ P- x* M* N% Q! l6 ^8 p
; j. E! ~' t I m2 {7 S+ P& R
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
1 U! U y u7 b
: {) U* i8 \: j6 D* u2 Q B+ O- R: f3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
- Q) P- y7 ~7 @ G% C+ c" ?
4 ~" d8 F! T5 x$ c+ gA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)& Z2 r5 \& T% j. j- x4 \
, m4 [" y, [( {& N- B2 E1 CA= -0.2 , _1 M& ] V0 r+ y
' V: n" p# e2 W; R4 |3 q
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好7 Q/ y4 `) |( [
# s: }8 X/ W3 K$ y* R$ I
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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