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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。* `; \, u$ i- s3 r+ K! Q- d/ ]
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率9 J8 G. |2 r& w4 t( V5 T( A
X& W7 h# h5 D/ g, C5 m, [5 {: c
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:! L1 ~" n4 v$ h' y
8 M$ {3 D% R8 p
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)2 ?; f, B, d2 m b3 d7 F
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?" o& N6 Y. V: r" g: \8 [+ T
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% V8 @ S `2 z, B盈利可能性" ~) @4 e4 m4 @2 D4 d
( `# `5 H. L S C( o+ N9 P; I( E对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。4 w; c/ X7 n* m) B: ^1 {$ L
8 ~4 e; f1 B4 D增值; r9 a6 q8 L+ R+ K( l
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
D, \! B# O/ m; R/ [) S' m9 @$ s% P/ \, V) F
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
3 x2 ~1 w$ j4 m7 G- {8 Y c9 W z5 T# ]5 S. \6 @# @: a
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
& L+ w0 ~" l) {60%的机会你会一无所有
9 z3 Q: W( |; f+ r0 {预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 + l. Q, \6 J, I K! ?! C( E
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。' |6 }' @6 G! a7 u) P9 n# u$ [9 c
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。' C( [# _- q% s# S% s0 D
5 x% I( Y2 ` \8 l基于增值的投注- j, P' `$ A; c) z- k) h
. K* B% l$ ` |$ K4 O W凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
9 u+ u% w5 t: }2 x3 VP=获胜机会
" ]( r- s' |+ A* o( FO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)( s/ |7 B3 |. `, a
$ V4 Q) i% K. h9 G! ?首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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8 t5 o# k. J! Y好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。- H+ r! R; g) @- w! f: L6 F$ @6 _
4 v3 S5 b" I% s4 B- P2 |/ C1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5); Z# q# P. o& U
/ {* O# r& v, h2 EA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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i7 a/ V* w- V oA=07 @* D1 C+ K- w3 {- z& n3 |
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢3 a7 p$ K8 b$ h, W# `: h- `: g
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)! P* G0 ]/ G, C% H4 r7 b
8 G$ V0 g! n8 c+ [; r- XA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去9 E D3 |2 y0 L9 J+ K0 B3 V
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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9 L1 A1 d5 K4 L' c% K3 EA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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/ Y! {( a1 ~0 n1 K [" FA= -0.2 / l6 P+ A2 F" Z- \: E5 L, t; n, ?: |& [
0 j a% Q3 U8 j& a5 p4 K结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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" o7 |2 d0 Y. T2 J第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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