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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。- H) z! J1 q' _7 x0 {1 P8 `; C
9 C$ U. H, N: C5 `* @) `. p) F6 t
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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/ c# K+ F$ [6 G& T( E很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)7 k: k3 T  g9 ]* T6 X, W

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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?$ H) K8 L) L& k( m

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盈利可能性  q. [1 d2 M, m

) ^$ r4 ]1 a- v$ X2 ~; l1 ]4 F; b对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。, m1 H# s' y* v& g) a' a
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。, x- d( H) C4 ]% m" e$ ~5 _

7 x: g) }: S3 |. m* ?你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?. N9 N4 H( h$ U" q
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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, U1 L+ h) f' t" i) K正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么' `6 H! u6 P; b0 |6 E/ q6 G% N$ e

; {$ W; Z  K6 j40%的机会你会收到150元的利润8 \5 ^/ m  J& S
60%的机会你会一无所有" [, F9 |" m2 Y. m6 a/ @; U- o6 I
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ! U5 j/ `$ p3 M+ X; g% v7 T  a# Q
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。* M- y/ Z8 ~% E# C5 e
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。$ Q* |4 j* G8 q" [
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)4 L7 J( e! ?% @- m- I
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A=博彩资金
. X, j3 q: u& R0 CP=获胜机会
8 j$ I# d, j, b1 c2 yO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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! i. H3 j% g. z5 @2 R! ?8 i首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。. ~6 g% }1 `( i( N1 }' u! e

; `3 m: q  z! [- |/ }* z& z好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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) ^1 F7 p5 [8 t" M9 `, Y1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5), b2 i" b' W* b

$ e7 q0 _0 r) ]  Z2 _6 A& K6 D9 yA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)4 g) }6 |! A4 v4 y$ a: y7 |/ ~

! N: i9 G  H# P7 d1 a+ uA=0. A; }. k& B+ N% a
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)* n8 N; w/ ~0 h, k" `. }

3 u5 C* [* f( t6 }/ V& w5 @) E& sA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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: ~8 B6 q% o8 H* h$ e2 v" [A=0.1- i6 ^  _6 L5 |6 @# N1 M8 `

, Q9 D) F) s% g* U结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去  T: C  r& E" l. X

$ [9 j4 g6 Y0 ]8 ^$ t3 g  k. z3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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- e) {4 x8 @, t( |" }A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)7 a- o4 G' I$ s# T  r( V$ o

; h5 E9 K: \! DA= -0.2 2 e9 Y& v. \% e4 k* R
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好5 c% u8 {- H' s! \! Y

4 |: M+ q/ G) j3 k1 w第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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