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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑; C% s5 Y1 T* ~4 y/ q
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: L, K! ?) s; Z! W* ~, O0 h凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k. P* R( G+ b. i, d" @1 ?6 d
% E2 G- W3 u- s2 G% sG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
6 O4 r- t" u6 _什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [7 T+ i+ \1 P$ r) n
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既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!
2 P+ d1 a) p2 q6 R9 e1 ]# d. u& g7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
0 f5 s% R' F! h- q# h做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
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% G2 R H5 q+ V1 s. f( q8 T(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n& P" x+ C% c' Z4 U
2 t$ Y9 \" p6 `' K(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00
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/ z/ v% }! B7 u' O/ n2 Z/ b" B/ D(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t" `1 W5 ] i# u' I3 \' y G/ c8 y
6 y- M; w8 J, y( a7 B7 ?(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95
: @9 q0 Q4 z6 A0 x1 F# q6 H0 K8 R- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _ e. N' O5 R7 k. d: s
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 6 e. F( P/ j7 {! U d
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+ \7 I$ y! d6 QS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
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+ s2 _% P* _+ I* oS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 . o& H6 V( K2 R( G' D+ l, S, {* i
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
) |* h5 b3 T5 c+ p, ^6 |; JS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 5 x9 Z0 @2 n1 X0 A. ~- z. K
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
3 y6 z) V- B6 `' D/ Z/ _$ U) eS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
( ~$ Y! |& `6 o" W8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v1 l& f9 Q9 U* j( y
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 # C1 _' j, u0 h2 ]8 P2 \% _+ K0 ^
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1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q+ ^6 S! t/ [ T- G, |! z. {
! |$ V! E7 M1 L* X' l, D1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
3 A. n( ~# W: C3 N0 ]: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r) k2 j: L6 t9 P8 {
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
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类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
% F9 n: }3 q+ F3 h' C1 Y8 u O
% {5 m! ?/ U5 DS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; ) m2 {2 j. N, p6 C1 f
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S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s: e* J9 d Z& d: S, p' P b
; m' V% T, u, P% O
4 _# w7 R% _. X( S4 ~( \S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 8 E! i0 B; h7 C3 L# y
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a5 M! Y J4 v# B+ k- N, z7 J
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 2 U* ]. q' Y6 V. v5 _* E4 r
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~2 Q) v) I& r) N" h8 }$ F) r
(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o) ~+ \ p% D6 S& I1 o, c7 k
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好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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7 ^ F3 D# ]7 U0 S0 D! G% e( A% \B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 , y) M: L0 e) }
' f; w) o/ W$ `# sF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 , f0 G" T: r: o
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于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?: C8 P+ B+ w5 e$ q) _4 S; w
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {8 `, `1 o( `! ^) @
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M$ C3 U/ u3 M7 j4 k' t' i( G$ i
+ D$ n) P# X# M$ g/ z7 {. j9 T4 O5 X! H& u' g
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 / M% Q$ F! u8 V
; S6 ?6 }7 |( B* DG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]0 p2 \; N: H4 E
& X; g1 Q8 H( N- Z当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \0 w7 e% A' n* D
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i' T: }% I9 ?" q% ^1 O& G# C. l2 g
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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