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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑; C% s5 Y1 T* ~4 y/ q
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: L, K! ?) s; Z! W* ~, O0 h凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k. P* R( G+ b. i, d" @1 ?6 d
% E2 G- W3 u- s2 G% sG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
6 O4 r- t" u6 _什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [7 T+ i+ \1 P$ r) n
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既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
2 P+ d1 a) p2 q6 R9 e1 ]# d. u& g7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
0 f5 s% R' F! h- q# h做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
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% G2 R H5 q+ V1 s. f( q8 T(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n& P" x+ C% c' Z4 U
2 t$ Y9 \" p6 `' K(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
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/ z/ v% }! B7 u' O/ n2 Z/ b" B/ D(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t" `1 W5 ] i# u' I3 \' y G/ c8 y
6 y- M; w8 J, y( a7 B7 ?(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
: @9 q0 Q4 z6 A0 x1 F# q6 H0 K8 R- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _ e. N' O5 R7 k. d: s
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 6 e. F( P/ j7 {! U d
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+ \7 I$ y! d6 QS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
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+ s2 _% P* _+ I* oS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 . o& H6 V( K2 R( G' D+ l, S, {* i
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
) |* h5 b3 T5 c+ p, ^6 |; JS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 5 x9 Z0 @2 n1 X0 A. ~- z. K
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
3 y6 z) V- B6 `' D/ Z/ _$ U) eS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
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1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 # C1 _' j, u0 h2 ]8 P2 \% _+ K0 ^
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1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q+ ^6 S! t/ [ T- G, |! z. {
! |$ V! E7 M1 L* X' l, D1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
3 A. n( ~# W: C3 N0 ]: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r) k2 j: L6 t9 P8 {
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
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类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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% {5 m! ?/ U5 DS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; ) m2 {2 j. N, p6 C1 f
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S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s: e* J9 d Z& d: S, p' P b
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4 _# w7 R% _. X( S4 ~( \S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 8 E! i0 B; h7 C3 L# y
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S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 2 U* ]. q' Y6 V. v5 _* E4 r
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(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o) ~+ \ p% D6 S& I1 o, c7 k
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好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
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7 ^ F3 D# ]7 U0 S0 D! G% e( A% \B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 , y) M: L0 e) }
' f; w) o/ W$ `# sF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 , f0 G" T: r: o
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于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?: C8 P+ B+ w5 e$ q) _4 S; w
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G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M$ C3 U/ u3 M7 j4 k' t' i( G$ i
+ D$ n) P# X# M$ g/ z7 {. j9 T4 O5 X! H& u' g
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 / M% Q$ F! u8 V
; S6 ?6 }7 |( B* DG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]0 p2 \; N: H4 E
& X; g1 Q8 H( N- Z当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \0 w7 e% A' n* D
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通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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