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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑: V7 ~. i4 y6 k* V4 t+ a M% a$ v
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$ z' ~: H2 C# a/ p& T0 H' K4 ^凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k- B- b, V; q6 G% p# e+ C
+ H! \; i, z! O. W H* k
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)7 p4 @" V& F% k
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [, W& x- Y: X5 i# Y- A o
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& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
3 ~& ^7 J/ I* |/ e2 ~' s既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 3 F4 _& V& z& u* Y7 g$ I2 R. M
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
. d" q4 K: ^, H/ K" f做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `0 A) t4 y* [1 y9 n
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d3 F$ o8 u6 C5 e, a ]" E
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n" F; d4 Y/ }; `0 ~% n/ r! _/ T# b* @
! u, e. X4 \* S
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 $ {$ m# {: j. k8 l3 a6 C" H1 h' m
! u" w: {8 J( k* p(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
( u9 [- ?+ l' V0 A `. x
3 R# K# z1 f2 F2 A4 m(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 2 \# s. j( w1 d& H
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _. V4 T) f% R u4 p' X% d" E
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 - [: T, W) T! J4 }. {' n- O
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
3 H |0 _# @; E r8 b! Y) x! zS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 ' F0 a4 M$ `: C" F! i4 D
2 w4 d# c- f9 C( t
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 " a ^% Y/ P2 V) e4 k4 h
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
" V% l: j2 f5 n# N, c$ ?S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 3 h* W7 O! }, B4 t5 o
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j' |: _* q6 I# E0 u6 i& K+ v
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \* g0 K0 C1 |1 }( A' r$ ?
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v3 x6 d$ a6 m1 x+ J0 o6 c2 y6 [' p7 F: q
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
8 \' Z% E/ M8 U0 P" U; V; n% V) {' m/ o
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l. M1 d6 `& g; P7 S* N9 O- E
m( d* z5 V6 F7 w. y# T% Q; r1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
0 T5 I( p3 U: J: Q2 b2 ]9 V: A* A6 D |2 x- Z3 b5 ]) K
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 8 s: {6 G$ q. o* O0 {
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r3 i7 A: h6 H' w( S( x- K3 ~; w: {
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T& b9 C, g, d/ b& x2 `! @( X
8 F+ m1 ]# W5 X2 _& n& E/ J1 p+ i! u类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j: ^' Z: I: G8 e
) E8 Q) q; ]/ [6 d, _/ e0 sS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
$ l+ M8 e- c% ^- r! t# e7 B6 Z2 F! u6 t/ d
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
8 G; Q! @3 L# N6 }* E4 J, }; m' V% T, u, P% O; C6 B/ E( b- h1 e" |
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
! |3 \; g/ Q# W2 f: B6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a' W @. R G4 X' d- S9 p, r
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
/ G: Z) [2 I* b# g: @: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~# o. b R7 f" x6 u3 F, \7 g' g$ P
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o: ], P+ v5 b; _( s" Q$ y0 P- e
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
7 I9 V: u" |8 N' ]# C好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 + _! I- Q: @, x8 S1 O: l
) q( ], k9 L T& t4 Y& M* v( w- j- L! u
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 2 \/ }* t/ v! L0 o2 C; v
- L4 Z9 N [# A# y! KF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 6 e0 U+ K# t8 |' Y/ N
& m9 S4 ]; r) a2 Z; g6 ]- e
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?, q O& ?3 n: W* P
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {" w& @" x2 R' F' V6 M0 J& m9 n3 r
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M3 C; j S/ E9 x& l
+ D$ n) P# X# M
5 J; F0 n+ x# ?* b% o SG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
. U# m" t. G- b/ d
6 V' ~7 d, |2 o1 R: N/ V+ aG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
* @0 j2 ?4 Z# d, V3 [. J5 X
7 ~+ Z' k# q% J" Y* ~当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \ w: p- J0 P5 n" O: W& p! P# \
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i) U( s! |. m1 _) @% c/ X
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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