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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑+ D5 K! E1 n; {1 H
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凯利指数的计算方法: ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
: P- V) O) j+ X/ D8 }' `6 {" y
6 `) `/ d$ s- E) T+ AG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔,B:平赔,F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率,B'欧平均平率,F'欧平均负率)
9 Y6 B% _9 }) S) g什么?对于一家特定的公司,它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'!你选择的公司样本不同,G值就不同,样本大小不同,G值也不同(一般的欧均值都取99家公司,从统计学的意义上来讲,还称不上样本!)这个G带有随意性,大个0.05小个0.08之类的,也只能算做误差,现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大?我大你个0.05怎么了?我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
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& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h. k7 ?3 @; E! v4 N
既然涉及到平均胜率,那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的:平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n,S1'是第一家公司的主胜率,S2'是第二家公司的主胜率,以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率(返还率)又是这样求的:r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F),什么??又做梦了!!返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的,这样也行??AC米兰踢亚特兰大,哨响了,投注比固定了,但踢出3,这场返还率可能是150%,踢出1可能是20%,踢出0,可能是5%,结果不同,返还率也不同啊!这里也可以看到,博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛,因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛,但强队踢假球的成本更高,它想操控也操控不了,最好的选择就是烧烧香:天哪,爆个冷吧!
, @2 ?1 W8 x' ]* C/ i- d6 V7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s; e5 P5 F4 c2 l* g6 D( ?
做下算术了: 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `7 ?3 X4 @" `9 ^' @. z" P
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(1)SSP: 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n2 S; Q6 j: n$ a0 a* W- s
$ K1 l" J" w# K3 P% ~6 _ E5 k' {+ j, M
(2)立博: 2.10 3.25 3.00
" u0 Y. Z$ S$ X; l
) ^/ v' b6 k" r/ J$ y: Z0 F(3)威廉: 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t. m) E! X' Y! Q
# b# Q) ~( G. m* D" C! x(4)易胜博:2.25 3.10 2.95
1 I# Y. z3 v8 c1 N- H* v0 g: v9 x! X3 ]0 W- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
- L% _2 z; n$ H% w) Z1 P我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
4 T7 S1 \4 | y8 ]' n5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c6 h/ o8 a# z/ ~2 N; H" V/ W
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 ! d1 x; T2 m9 ^
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S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
' Z+ o7 C& l& A# B! x% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s+ K+ g# G! f0 n' N; q
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 6 Z0 S: |+ N+ ?7 a9 p3 p: }
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
1 D$ G8 E3 _( M% X! |S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
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! X; N4 i* z" l" V1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 % M: H5 B' e, K2 |- @
9 o3 s; U5 @! ^1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l: m: W: V& g- B+ ?1 Y2 @7 N
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1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q0 I0 U3 p7 i- j# Z8 z
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1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
* r) E1 o: l! n: F0 C: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r" s5 y) z( t# f7 q" b9 r+ O3 e
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T' i7 g" M9 e* Z. e
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类似的计算后,于是: # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
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8 C$ l/ F+ b! e$ {0 R* AS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; ( B. ]- a0 k$ X6 S
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S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s e* ~1 Y( E( J5 t
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S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
( }$ K7 `. \) T3 C" J5 Q( A6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
- Z+ ?& C0 t& A3 _- m0 n; oS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 6 X$ o. o. S* h$ |) P
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
. y* @, p! C, G3 H/ G& o# e9 D( |7 J. v(注意:3,4两家公司,赔率不同,但它们的胜,平,负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
2 }, X( |' R8 x+ H. z1 e; J3 _3 w* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \' L4 j( a3 R0 y
好:S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
& J3 X; H7 R6 u8 h3 \) q( ], k9 L T& t
/ Q6 L4 E' X$ UB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 $ L6 l3 }/ a5 P
, T3 c& h: C! e6 `; H+ u! U+ B' Q- |F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
2 A# _3 \5 B( d4 h, ^9 f. i6 a+ ~! L# f2 L- r, y; R
于是: / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
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6 G$ j1 {# w$ u: s& uG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
$ w. v* q* e( ~* V& I/ C' Z% q+ D$ n) P# X# M* E- ^9 Z3 T) D
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
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G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]. F5 [% T7 O( _7 p
+ M# t t' [. p, S# `3 \- t
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得,当然,事实上你不用去求(每场比赛这样求,不累死也气死了),赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好,到这里你应该可以知道了,凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了,因为除了赔率是真的,其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的(并非是攻击凯利指数,这个,前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了)。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
7 g6 Q9 S8 F j0 o. D% _9 o6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
" C! J* s, H6 B( ~$ {% P通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系,在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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