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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
* p% m+ A7 x2 U! H5 m9 t* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c4 X3 c7 `# Z4 ]4 D3 r0 x
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k7 G. s1 M. q7 \' S. f
; ]0 {0 D5 X0 h# T- m/ x
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)9 F$ Y j" Q Q( n. |
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [. S" u* _# s. U
& h; r! F6 N7 y8 ~
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
+ P6 h% g2 l |既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ * P- q% q+ z5 ^# b
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
5 R9 J/ D0 z' j, w做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
, \; k! z: J& s7 e& ]* I; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d( o D" j; G) K
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
3 k4 l9 Z( @* e' \# f4 }( z$ \. x9 ]% t# v
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
' x: P5 J& M" s- E+ r4 ~4 R7 r* Z }; N' `) B4 p
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t" U- r$ T- O/ L! D* g
, z+ w. g" z4 ]0 i6 B) D
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
* `- m/ |! a- f o8 T2 G6 U i5 L- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
i6 F) `) m' D j3 W4 H2 P, c我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
1 A5 k" f& G4 b G. B/ T5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c8 a9 [1 C3 ]3 y' {
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01 / y& o$ g) ^, ~( j! k3 B5 x
: k; b' g% s* |6 n3 v. T6 lS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
; A+ x! x. ?: T( \% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
1 `) A# ]6 @# n3 @; S* r) KS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 ; V8 ~' D) [4 f/ W3 J: @
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j, o- \2 O6 c/ `- B0 X9 S- }
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \" N: L E4 Y& y5 S0 t
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
+ I8 g1 h+ }) j. y, _, S1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
+ }- J) W$ U, n* V3 K9 ]
4 q: C) H3 A. X7 ~& N1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l4 P" L A2 F# V; q* G- j
9 ?& q0 M1 _4 G. L9 K- O1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
% w. K: |# j. F, R; b2 D/ P6 x" K) H( Q) r, Z0 J# s% D/ r
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 0 ~- ^# g: P5 o, R3 k) @8 J
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
1 L' V' E' m9 H% q" E! hS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
8 G* y2 X6 o( d& N3 T( @
+ [3 A, b# B# B7 O类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j2 y, i# M g5 g" f8 D
0 E; ^) T, v! F* Z; H* O
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; : a) W& ~" ]0 q% m5 v5 \
' a u! S: B+ k; m4 o7 ^S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
1 }4 Z8 A2 \- r6 ~$ D$ p% [; m' V% T, u, P% O
- ?4 R$ M2 r1 RS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 : G: F3 F3 G: r
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a+ l% t' e' z; @+ t4 ~& Q
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 2 A; s7 r) y9 ?7 C z9 a& u
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
- q/ d8 k" \9 n. t(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o8 f9 y; n/ X5 l$ v6 n6 W% r
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \/ M) m. Q, J! N: M
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
! p( h, t6 z3 q" }4 h4 d/ ]$ j& f# o) h) q( ], k9 L T& t
) x# e9 b) C: \% s" _/ YB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 ) o* q1 Z% Z6 p5 x
2 Q5 M& A8 \* \$ ]% Z
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 ( u" w" b7 f7 `+ {2 ^* _# i n) l
7 F3 d/ [1 v# d于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?$ N% l( K' _# x8 _: x/ e; K
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {& n3 @$ q& ?4 Y& }" j( ^+ e
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
' x9 B) g) p4 @( G+ D$ n) P# X# M
$ Z) E& s7 _( R$ p v0 O/ lG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 ( ^/ S5 {+ F" {1 q; y+ R$ O
& ^8 p3 U. J4 |, G% o6 S6 q
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
- u$ }2 n; R& R! \$ F$ g' j4 P3 V# C( T. Z) H8 b
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
* Y3 M. u4 v6 l/ Y6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
9 I0 M" M* A, `; M2 y: C5 o通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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