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小分3种情况:
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% p( L% {4 [$ Y1 m+ K1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
) Z' l5 g# ]: e8 r
, l& F% L2 k; c: C2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。) [# F5 u+ R4 E9 ` x
5 ]! n# E, A) F0 f( y: O
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。 U. X( V3 \& X! a/ O; K: D
0 R3 E9 [" F6 }: `/ t. f2张牌8或9点的情况有:
}' {5 ^, c: @2 A# I# ?0 |0 U7 o* n/ I0 d3 g9 w
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
- x' ?+ A; b+ ]3 f W% y7 {# I2 m- u& [
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
: m$ V. m5 C3 e; t+ T, o
* z m: \ t6 U" j6 q8 s. P4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415 ~$ D6 r7 H, i3 W! l0 J
) `- K* h. K) A# E; n# T
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
5 o6 x( g. D" B( b) X. x: i U1 J# g& F! |
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
1 O' |! K+ D" Q5 O% ~2 {4 C7 y4 C8 d$ |4 w- W" y9 k) n. [
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
1 z8 s- P& e2 ]; F' W
( ?. ^3 w4 ~4 U3 c7 ~那么我们可以得出% f% v5 |; j7 A7 r# Z. P* J
- p k$ h( C/ ?0 G5 G1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
- h, P; r7 U. @1 P. }; Q# s$ x
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
$ l$ c2 B. g$ L, I( N# `' Q* ]5 l$ ^* X6 ^+ u% A0 H2 I/ @
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
5 P! U3 H# v' }* U% W; z: u5 Y' A' y" C, @- F2 O
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
& s* k+ w/ ?7 |4 c! }* I; F
7 L9 D R, {4 a5 I百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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