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小分3种情况:
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1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
8 y' d7 p1 u, l3 E3 T. H$ {! r" D7 B- ?/ A, G( d" I
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
9 Z6 D3 v( d" b9 @
# V9 P+ L2 i, b) `. o1 K, p5 H* F3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
( o8 M' b& J: F7 q6 y7 @8 d
( I( w& M& s+ ?8 B- a2张牌8或9点的情况有:
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1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
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1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
) F# Q7 @/ C, h$ Y* d( L+ h0 E# }8 N
" ]. T* |. L8 x2 r0 C4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
g' s$ P' ^, A* G/ ~% P; A3 T) M( _, y, e* C) Q3 L2 c
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415/ K/ }% ]# Q( o$ E. i+ J, f' x* u
/ `1 P" f% A0 U0 ]$ a! x8 P由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
. u* i& E/ F, p5 p6 |9 f9 I. r" X3 ?4 g! u
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
& Z" Z) w* U) t; Q2 a) r3 `
5 h* `1 E: a6 g u% O& i+ g: z那么我们可以得出
' Y1 R( g% ]4 ~! j# _/ |5 e5 d/ t4 `5 U( D* `
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
! X3 v w5 J$ d/ N# D- Q, T- I
d4 k( P5 S0 e! n( W# c8 X2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
7 @) e& O7 L* G! v0 q2 D% ~! U+ M# i/ |# w7 B; b
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
$ t- Z3 M6 Q% T* S# N' _6 K' T
2 v7 n0 y" H9 h( X所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323. \, j, [, J" Q2 _7 E d9 P
n3 t1 _2 P! l/ ?# h, [6 C9 n1 {百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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