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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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, a4 B0 D7 v T: z: R西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率) G6 e L2 ^: k6 \. E; ^2 n
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:' a2 z' ^) j7 P0 n
8 [& ~6 g. { p/ C# a# `6 S+ O( y+ ]+ u皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% / x2 S7 U7 l, P5 _
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?5 s2 k8 @ O; j, n
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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2 e, Q! r& G* u9 U/ W" x7 P) i2 r+ {0 c8 \/ m# L9 ~
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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5 a) Q# p; f; `& R3 B+ ~
盈利可能性, y* o- ?, [6 G" Z8 n
# Y( Y* \% y/ ?% [$ d, j
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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# c) i, ~$ c X- F7 D W$ j2 l) _增值/ E$ z, k6 r p
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。6 Z! ?" Y: M$ x7 @* C! ]1 u; }
( v, T: f# x$ o; T你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?$ Z6 n1 g# K% U2 m
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 3 A5 T" N9 \7 H7 v* j
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
! j9 t5 N0 g# I60%的机会你会一无所有
5 S( M% L/ @( J; j7 }$ E& y+ S+ B预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 1 F) H7 O9 B, d
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。1 v: r; Y. V# c# k: k
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。0 i" F* o- T* R' l- m3 S, Y! G, C
+ x4 `$ R# `5 t2 v) _9 ? s6 @基于增值的投注
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" `! c O$ F# d* f9 H凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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/ w; c/ {0 D7 r x8 P# ?A=博彩资金
4 a8 l- d$ C/ l+ k6 AP=获胜机会7 s( q' o" G* b' x8 N. E \
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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* E0 ]% L5 [3 x& F( A# I: O首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)' F1 Q# _7 V9 c" f1 H
0 Z$ y4 T) u4 p4 r( k$ n. w$ hA=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去. E3 |9 C5 [9 l/ a( L- I; f) a
5 h" o9 c$ |$ S! y [2 R3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)0 J% e6 ?% T/ l
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 ! p$ F& U {7 W. g [+ R H
) [8 x( E3 u7 b: o( X- g. x5 k结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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( n' K. j2 B4 S1 |) @. Y第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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