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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。/ f- ^' [, u; V+ g- i+ ?+ e

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* Y+ ?4 ^+ y9 ~8 ]4 H西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率# L; A+ g6 x2 W
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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$ T4 a7 c; o% D) t( z3 [皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% $ u& @3 S- L2 [  I$ M
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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4 k' y' x5 @  D, g# [2 w' Q. a答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)" [8 g1 N* {" n; n
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) E' x; _! |3 c: T0 N5 W- `以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性0 c0 F+ m  S0 x# j1 f, _

: t: e5 V1 n; ~  s% d5 w对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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* D% D1 l5 J. F# m4 \0 ^  e许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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9 T5 w4 ^6 {& w. c5 v) k: p: l你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?/ u8 U+ C, {. H: J

9 [/ f& g" F5 L7 U4 B0 E9 H! ga) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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  p, C3 m  [1 E正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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! V# g! K* E6 N$ ^) k40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
  C6 X% }; r! F# T9 ?60%的机会你会一无所有
' T' R& m: d* S  |3 U预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
3 C$ h0 }6 A3 `由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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* @6 T: M, C0 p4 Z! l! `8 F$ j/ O增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。( J, \$ y. i' n# X4 a

# f1 h) F) K; B/ |基于增值的投注
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- U: w5 p1 o, x# Y1 k6 e! j凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。9 O5 j$ z: t( j5 m, Z
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
3 g& b' r& v: E7 U/ M/ S6 Q* L3 uP=获胜机会
6 G  Y+ J( m. D. }' Z% x' `O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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5 Y# y8 w7 e; T, Q首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。* x/ u0 `4 S" o
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)9 Y" ]2 v; Q8 i% w6 L

& J% M6 |5 K6 c9 WA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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9 M' L& S* y" E9 d5 s# j+ m/ SA=0+ P+ S# q( v! O3 A4 _; E

- c) c* I% Q9 P+ F# j结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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& v& d2 W/ ~( P: T" ]' E+ E2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3), F- e6 X  T8 D6 G
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)% P, R' v1 Y! [& r( v* l; O" o  ~
% \% ?9 I3 }# O- D% Q& Q3 M% s& S
A=0.10 H3 X6 l/ j. e
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)& O0 p8 k$ p3 i

5 [8 H  ]8 a# s2 T& S7 I: Y, hA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)* R! }% }0 x2 f+ L2 p+ `" y: C0 E- n
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A= -0.2   b' W1 z. Z) v, D
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好, _% Z7 h# v% }! `, p) D

$ n  J/ o8 R! G1 V7 x' O; N第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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