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[lastpost] => 2765079 稳定币:全球金融新秩序与我们的未来 1757701966 天策-瑶娥
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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/ Y2 ^7 [7 `' Y& K% r: f& `' a过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。* U: N$ q! R: H# Y( V7 h
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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" N: P. y* ]% b$ I9 \5 v! |# [2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期4 D. S5 c# u' o" r: F4 c6 y7 {% H
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当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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% y4 @9 g, x6 _: j- Q微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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! K0 B0 ?! ]* O7 }: TETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。 j- B6 m/ ]: J U! j% z$ g
: @4 c' u# S4 v( D; s; @比特币价值回归:
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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! n7 A; X7 g+ @4 {' n$ p, N随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。) m8 x( K* Q$ O5 D( l! m2 C
: E) Y% v- o% a: r3 V6 u" y加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。. @' X; z; ?9 m) d
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况! ]4 g% s4 l$ f2 A0 B
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虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。' A1 b" E% W1 F) T* n
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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BTC:. t- S1 M! u: K4 c2 a3 A, q
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。7 N/ P1 I% r# t! P: S
4 ]# o% _+ }2 {6 n; n' E& g" ASOL与XRP:
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8 s$ p$ v6 [4 a7 [5 V2 N0 RSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。6 s7 f- _: N4 p+ o/ j- a4 K
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XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。! Q: A( c! G H' @2 R
, w: V% I6 |3 e( l9 J其他热点项目:
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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( ]1 H8 p& c, ^) [ R& l: ^山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。9 Q V, k' V& k9 n' c* f, m( F8 R9 ~
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目, o) [# P7 ?" B( Q& `# K2 X% x
8 t; K) a o( p9 q% ?' d2 x v, AAI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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) @' g% f! I0 r- b" g/ K" i市场展望
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, `0 w, Q8 ~) G z8 ~! D随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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