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[lastpost] => 2751286 SpaceX突然挪动价值超1.5亿的比特币,是要抛售?还是只是“打扫钱包”? 1753413761 AOU1888
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币,同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。' q) ?; G) ?, B( a; T a6 f
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瑞银认为,一旦全球无风险利率出现波动,意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出:“我其实不担心+ ]6 h, I9 R' X3 ^8 N9 d
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衰退,我担心的是金融危机。”
! W( }6 ^' T! \# f' f美股周五重回涨势,看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复,但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性,尤其是美债的剧烈波动,让金
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6 j- F' V9 h# Z融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。4 U V5 e9 u6 L6 o# k
' [9 D% J4 Z7 g5 e过去一周,美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升,美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看,标普500指数周涨超5%,美债收益1 n* I* k/ B5 T0 e3 N* D
y" _7 M3 g( |) n率回到2月水平,比特币收盘走高,似乎一切如常。2 @$ m+ _0 T- @% @3 V
6 h# J M9 a# l/ }4 q Z; g6 ]& N然而令人不安的是,本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象,正是典型的新兴市场特征,而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国1 ^ y! l% Z5 P4 s8 N. X6 f
! ]% r( J, q3 `( l" Z$ [长债出现如此大的波动,流动性危机似乎就在眼前,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更% i l0 M# e9 X G9 a/ R
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是表示:
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率,如果全球无风险利率出现波动,它将颠覆所有市场。( n4 |. c" s8 X+ B! a9 T
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历史罕见,美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币1 O5 e0 M% V2 r, G( p/ m
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心,也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史5 i4 x: B$ K3 b# g
1 q& s9 Q8 ?8 N; x0 q$ L9 `标准来看,本周都是一个惨烈的交易周,美股像是坐上了过山车,美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了:
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周一,因所谓的乌龙关税消息,美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震,纳指一度低位暴拉10%,美债跳水。
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$ v, b+ A8 H9 a U$ ]& A% v周二,不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望,道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点,标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌,美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。. d- Z$ P9 i+ [, b( v1 R' h) u
H0 Z+ ~- a; |' y9 p0 S周三,美国暂缓部分关税,三大美股指至少收涨近8%,标普创2008年来最大涨幅,美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债4 U* l: F) |) q8 l2 j
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收益率冲高回落。" T4 U2 v( N; b5 J7 s
4 W( ^0 o* J6 k, ~. Y$ ~6 r7 ~周四,全球投资者逃离美国资产,美国股债汇三杀,纳指跌超4%,美元两年来最大日跌,黄金新高。) N3 V9 [ k9 T0 p4 n
! S3 C2 F* j6 k- [. e* ~7 @周五,美联储暗示或出手,美股反弹收涨,但美债美元的跌势,警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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0 s8 t* |% U, ~9 tLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示:"美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场?毫无疑问,
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是的,这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示,美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金,也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去 y# N0 K& e2 Z7 |+ t
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外,几乎从未出现。2 K( M }( s, c' A- Y
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6 {. T5 _$ r1 j9 [! Y6 j- L6 FRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言:"标普500指数像加密货币一样交易,这可能不是好事。"# |, I$ a( ~/ ~0 x% e5 Z! V
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调,但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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