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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘
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; [3 k$ A8 Y% g, v- M4 M 初盘高水,豪门要防冷# ~6 F6 e3 F+ C: j5 O# I
8 R) u0 q8 f, h$ J% @
" Y% ^( h5 q- o* l6 P 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
& D: F. i. S0 g8 o 英超主队
5 c/ K* T( f. c' X8 J( d/ o; [ 胜:11场 79%
- B( m' k' }2 G T( s 平:2场 14%
8 h( V6 c& `" n7 B- x: v; g/ [ 负:1场 7%
- J! N/ p: C7 Y; a
+ A6 c; n- B7 D7 ^% |0 V+ _ 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。% k* z1 j7 v9 V# m
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一、初盘阶段; n0 K. j9 X" a$ ~. U' _7 @
- q% ]: i1 \! V+ { 具体到水位如下:
/ A4 t4 ]% \. S# y2 S* B- o 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜
2 Z& ? X( n: K6 e 初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
) N4 U) V+ F3 [) u1 x4 B$ g& ` 初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平+ m' u2 f" ?2 c( M4 ~/ l
: g$ A" t5 W! j$ { 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:
; M0 C9 Y6 L! X' s
( r* o9 }5 a" w+ b0 ?7 A 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00
9 c0 G2 f3 n" d& S 热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
! W3 i* j( g2 G: U 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00# \! t! r% D: `3 V% M6 ?. _
2 {& Z; I/ ^, o5 V K7 S- y
初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。6 V% q5 C1 T6 q! f( q/ a$ r
初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。! C, t6 I |" E8 J8 u! L) p8 f6 \* `
: \' R* ?8 }. j) ~6 r2 Q9 e 二、临场阶段% F: G- f9 \9 |( i$ y3 a: U
+ y# T) c3 a2 V* e 具体到盘口如下:
: E; Q+ e( E) {% F6 h6 ~6 v, n 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
8 f; W, h: _3 g 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平
; }* n$ Y. y- z' V; e! K 分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:" A. h8 r; g- |9 `7 C( J; G
' o6 o+ {- m3 u- j
热刺VS伯恩利
+ F( M8 I1 F; F8 ^ 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.000 i+ ^# `1 z7 [) V( X/ R! W/ k0 a7 N% O
终盘:0.77球半1.09
8 X2 R( g4 |; s" t - r' c5 C7 }4 u) Z2 }
临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。! O. d5 `7 k& P( m6 G3 p
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三、球队表现
/ n9 z. L# B9 C$ N 7 F8 M3 F+ y/ t. U! |! G
在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
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四、投注要点
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要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证
# M. U7 t- i5 X 要点2:初盘中水,重点防平! S0 t: [& ^! n0 E( v3 e# w
要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能
' e- c% |( r& M) p w# Z% } 要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选311 s8 L) _' @4 W- c# s, W# Q& Y
要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低. \8 q0 l7 C. [' w( V3 `4 A
要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任
. z& q$ w& n" z& S9 s7 K 要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视: o* v& q. M! c [) D! P
' l/ Q. P i9 I' @. Z3 J E6 R5 ^ 对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法8 g' L: N" v1 \' E8 ~( d4 ?- |
对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方; h$ |1 G" }& S3 `9 Q3 V
面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。
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