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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率0 u# C+ u5 v+ |9 _
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:/ x0 @/ L* w. {( ?
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?3 `6 }9 m" A; ^ }6 A t2 ?$ `
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?2 p' z7 j. O, Y
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6 u y" i9 N0 I: r: {& s盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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/ l7 w9 Z9 E: Y5 g! g0 M- v% c许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?, \: P: \$ L3 ]
7 f4 X B$ |1 G3 I" O* X" L( |a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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# u4 T0 w0 D& n K正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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( Y# z5 y. L, z; Y p+ M& J40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
7 y) L6 q; h& u, n/ L, I60%的机会你会一无所有
. f; o, p8 S4 {" y3 D- x预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
" p. ~- L6 W6 F% R. v由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。/ i* x- q3 h( |9 Z/ |' j
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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% Q% {4 p& }# z! N/ a/ RA=博彩资金
: G$ v8 t7 }! HP=获胜机会/ W( Q( N; x3 g7 d, H ?5 Q7 X
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)* x1 d- `& Y- o1 T4 u* W
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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! Y* { Q# G# r- h- M9 dA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0% }; P1 L" P9 W7 K% Z) o4 E
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢) `: l0 q# g# h4 [. o: X$ t
0 m: A4 F5 s5 y4 f# d2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.13 G) b4 l' S2 L# l" w
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去1 g, Y U2 K! d2 y
1 K+ I& L% O( h8 h3 p- A/ r! C3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2): e; C% A* d+ J+ I# ~2 i
% K; t, u& d; }$ F- sA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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4 Z1 L) P1 L+ e. f8 u) M: A第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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