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[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
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此帖转贴,作者wloo (凉咖啡)" `. u* s4 P5 R
Dubo不是好东西,盲目的赌真的会让你倾家荡产。但是如果你真能掌握其中某些实
" [$ F! {" z4 e" A5 d质,结果也许真的会大不一样。+ H4 U4 p: i6 s# ?
一个玩21点的,在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,他一个晚上就能赢走90万多
. @! t7 R; d5 Y/ f J$ x8 N8 u' e美元
" m* e' j! q% K8 }' O0 C他凭自己的技术,要养家糊口是不成问题的。要说华尔街那些人能在某种程度上掌, i6 w, _ U5 V3 l. U/ F" b
控国家经济,也是事实。他们所做的某些工作跟赌有紧密联系的。所以说,小赌可 y' j9 O! J$ ?& s2 i
以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民,也不能算是痴人梦话。0 |9 Q, g {+ g! ~3 Y) m5 M
Dubo有多种,这里只说赌彩,就是玩彩票。 有人说,彩票是愚者的Dubo,智者的游
! R2 d& H: z1 k* _+ q% E$ I, m戏,我赞承这种说法。
" s: l6 d- g, o e# f现在还没听说过什么人能用玩彩来养家糊口、救国救民,如果真能玩到这种境界,9 j# w8 _: a/ U! T$ U! U# t
也算世界状元了!但如果你非赌不可,就必须首先具备成熟的心理素质。' y1 g. m4 c1 ~. x" N" n
首先应该面对的是关于彩票公证性的挑战。" B$ g+ p. G; T8 n
玩彩前,每个人都要先问一个问题:彩票公司公正吗?出号真的是随机的吗?$ V' v. |- {/ Q5 G& g
疑问1:现在世界上主要国家(包括加拿大,不包括天朝)的彩票公司都在用一种
# A) \9 Y( @2 B- b* f/ e6 HG-tech技术保护,不敢对G-tech多说什么,只是在下面列出很多彩票玩家经常提出
8 y; s" `% s f$ q- Q( W的一些与G-teck 有关的问题:: K- T" h5 V- o" F
* Why one organization called “G-TECH” behind the world lotteries?
; W; z* T7 W; {3 `4 L1 UIs it because those world governments cannot afford to buy the
* F6 ~7 C1 c0 P4 \4 C$ jequipment outright unless G-TECH supplies it to them?
9 [& z1 g6 _% C' \3 k- v* Why G-TECH collect percentage of the profit from the local operators?
0 f* Z1 n" U4 d' P* What more is in to lotteries apart from Machines and Balls?
( O6 Z( |) ^% P7 a& _- ]Could it be software involved?! l# g! A) q0 j1 C! w* w* N H
* Why world data such as UK, France, Germany, Spain and even USA have the
4 N$ a' ~: W- P$ m" `$ i: msame resemblance but never and ever match entirely?+ n1 V/ M7 E; v; X* W
* Why satellite terminals are involved if the draws are taking place locally,
. j- p. W8 a4 W! Sis it because to transfer data back to G-TECH for calculations?' y+ [& t2 I. T3 b K
* Why there is a minimum of half hour interval from the shut down of terminals
) S3 O, a$ ], h! f0 ^1 o1 Zto the time draw takes place, what the organizers do during this time?
m7 u2 e) T* }. `0 |7 e6 T* How can the local organization running the lottery like Camelot in UK can take( @* I/ W- M3 C" o) O8 `3 S
their share of sales (%50 I believe) before the draw takes place especially
! j. B6 K: W8 Fwhere there is a minimum prize of £10 guaranteed? ? How do they know how
4 A% n) I' G# X+ X; Bmany $10 winners there are to calculate their sums when there is a possibility
" L) N" \! |$ F- l4 w3 e0 }" |) nof the number of £10 winners exceed from the total sales?
% I3 A4 V. | u) i; Z& N** 注:据说G-tect理论需要30分钟去完成某些“优化”计算
6 T) H( j8 i. v+ b** 注:理论上讲,过去的中奖号码最多在4500期后就会出现首次重复。2 ?; A- s: g- f, V7 @4 v! G
疑问2:曾有人在某彩票玩家网站上贴出下面文字,后来经有心人查证,其作者IP
1 r! @# L/ D [7 w1 o! I {似乎是控制加拿大649、Super7的彩票公司,就是说是彩票公司内部的人发出的...
4 l f- t( _6 d/ W0 k" fWinning numbers how there are selected8 K, p# d) o+ d4 H
This is the way we select the winning numbers:1 Z/ a, [* y8 n7 ^- {% m
Select "XXX' Numbers_set from Played_numbers% l, `) l9 h" l: A" L5 x- p
where Province_of_played='XXX' and city_of_played='XXX" and time_of_played='XXX'8 e! X2 r4 D r, }8 k7 T2 C0 ]
and Method_of_Played='XXXX'
# j; E, y) L z, D j# A! yOn each ticket we record the place, the time and the way the numbers have been selected.
+ e: P+ G" z, D- _We run this query against all played sets.
" F* Y8 [/ F' q5 a) C5 wWe then feed the drawing machine with the results, the outcome will always be what we want.
b) k7 U; ]2 Y2 v3 vFor example if we want to have a single winner from Ontario, who played quick pick we run, ~. q2 t# l @+ W0 S B
the following query:
* M- Y8 E% [9 x% \8 M2 O2 R& ~/ }Select unique numbers_set from played_numbers9 z0 U& p* u9 d7 v0 S& {1 s! Y+ R+ V
where province_of_played='Ontario' and method_of_played='quick pick';
& n; b3 u# N7 t; w/ c+ F# w( d; ^9 JIt just takes less than 5 minutes to get the results.
& ?" C" m9 ^$ |( z; BWe prefer players wo play quick pick because our machine predict the numbers.5 j1 }: r2 |. N# F, b# J
If we do not want a winner we run the following query: g/ o3 x: R V( `4 x
Select unique numbers_set from all_numbers_set where numbers_set not in played_numbers;- D: n) u- H: T8 s: ^
上述英文是原文,没经过任何改动。" K" |8 q7 P, \2 C: z
虽然此帖没明说是用在何种彩票上,但后来因为其作者IP的曝光(彩票公司内部人), ~: _" c7 u! N- s2 Y
很让人怀疑加拿大649、Super7的公正性。如果这是真的,很恐怖。
" O% I; `' c8 G0 l8 U n, {% K疑问3:为什么现在加拿大彩票公司不实况转播摇奖过程,为什么加拿大彩票公司
. g6 j0 J1 M# }! Q0 k( C在停止售票1个半小时后才开始摇奖,而且每次摇奖只有几个人参与(一两个摇奖/ s; z( O" f) p! p2 |2 S& K
人员加三两个摄录的技术人员)?+ \' |6 U+ \% r0 h
为什么摇奖过程没有法律公证人员参与、证实?为什么所有玩家购买号不能在摇奖8 ?/ |/ X: e8 k
前刻在一张非重写的光盘上(体现公正性方法之一)?等等,很多问题。! V5 b: a+ _- R! Q( D% E* C
疑问4:为什么大多数情况下,“中奖者”信息不公开?(有人指出有很多未曝光的重) F3 u4 {. B% v1 u2 y1 W
复中彩者)$ J7 B$ F4 d# w! H, S
为什么几年前安省649出号与同期加拿大649出号极其相像,远远超过其理论上的
! Z. U9 `: |8 @可能性?
" F; ]6 p& j d; O疑问5:为什么彩票公司很多公开年薪超过10万的工作人员,几乎所有人公开的Taxable; V2 X* A% L7 S
Benefits只有不到200元?不用上税的Benefits有多少?5 T" p$ g. m3 P' `! f3 P1 x
下面附件里包括部分2003年OLGC年薪超过10万的Name、Position、Salary、# j* x! k* P# P7 Y; R: ~6 K6 u! U
Taxable Benefits。其实还有很多的疑问,但以上的疑问足以使一个成熟的人望而
/ K( V* Q0 p \2 @0 T$ K' P8 ^8 L止步。我个人的感觉,相比之下真正公正的彩票是天朝的彩票。如果你有成熟的心
- n+ M! T6 Z/ S0 @. |8 Z M' X. l理素质包容以上疑问,并且还坚持非赌不可,那么你还需要了解一些有关彩票的最
- O/ ^# s* N7 `+ r% Y p+ z基本的知识。) z. g& |, y* R, L2 H
应该承认,通过适当的分析,是可以大幅度提高中奖机率的。虽然那个玩21点的,
; e+ x+ f2 b" O3 D! w8 ~7 A在掌握了提高3%的赢牌机率技术后,一个晚上就能赢走90万多美元,但是对彩票) `& h+ d, B* u1 P+ \6 B
而言,却完全不是这样。其实对彩票研究而言,提高3%的中奖机率并不困难。比2 G* P% y- K5 Z+ q7 N
如几周前,某人给出20个数字,说明是其后10次加拿大649最佳候选号。结果中5" C- {; K, e# f) L
个(或以上)中奖号至少3次以上。1 m3 M& d7 ^' h: E+ A$ D
理论上,49选20中5的几率是3.2153%,此人的结果提高30%以上的中奖机率。可
+ z- z5 f) M6 ?$ b结果是他自己最多中了10块钱。原因很简单,彩票可能性的数据量太大,除了专业- m D3 q8 i3 y. V/ {: z% A. w: E
玩彩的,没有人会每期投入几十万。; y, s5 y; J% A9 F
20选6有38760种可能,20选5加另外29选1有449616种可能,每期花$976752,
; x' f) F8 S& k. ~, O) Y! x似乎专业玩彩的也不敢这样投。结论是即使你提高了30%的中奖机率,尤其是没有 _, \' p# r/ {6 r/ i
人敢100%保证它的号能每次都达到30%的中5个机率,如果每次买全可能号码,最& D# X& O2 \4 a. _5 |
后你还有70%的机率是赔。8 k$ f7 ~) k+ B' c6 L4 T: d
即使用旋转矩阵选号,20中5保3也要20个以上,仍然赔。如果不自己选号,去quick. Q$ f. l h& i" V6 z3 W ~
pick,就是机选,那你几乎是没有什么机会的,即使是10块钱,你也会很难得到。1 q: h) p8 [+ O& ?: l$ n+ G+ f0 `
且不说上面提到的G-tech保护,首先,理论上的中奖机率就少得很。理论上的机率
- Z! [% |. R& v也不保证100%中奖机率。
0 G/ j3 X# K6 d0 L) X6 P# x F举个具体的649的例子,中3的机率大概是1.765%(或1/57),但你买57张彩票,. k1 p" U/ C, Z: o% }- i0 l
却不能100%的保证中3。如要100%的保证中3,现在的世界纪录是163,就是最少
* M" @2 N' [. O$ C) o! L- H+ ?/ s买163张彩票(当然按特定组合了),才能100%的保证你中3个。如果你老能设计3 U9 ~. P! B! F& B2 |+ v2 }
一种组合,用低于163的数额就能保证中3,可以去参加Lottery Wheeling
# T' ?5 {( o. h* m6 a- eChallenge,也弄个青史留名。当然,这特殊的163张彩号组合,肯定不会受G-tech- c- r0 h; Q9 K, z
影响。问题是用163张彩票,$326,去赌$10奖金是否值得。
) _" A& ?# H# g. l; E如果在这时你老还是非赌不可,那么该如何赌呢?不同的人有不同的技术,如果你
6 t, n" _# j- R& _3 W' b" y% _$ }没有白胡子老头托梦告诉你中奖号码,只能多在历史数据里下功夫了。- i9 c& ?8 `: B5 u4 k# A ]) I
说到彩票研究,会有很多人说是痴心妄想。" s: v+ R: w3 p5 y1 l: {
明白人会用概率理论来说明彩票是不可预测;9 V" l0 Y8 [) U! c) W; H4 r
不明白人会说,如果你能预测,就先来中几千万;
4 N; r7 S2 a8 U& O0 K$ }& T不明不白的人会说,中大奖的人都活不长,等等。
0 R; x( M4 J7 a# ~; E$ B且不管这些不同人的心态,仅对彩票本身而论,要研究彩票,只能从历史数据着手,: c7 j/ w8 i: Q: Z, m# F$ E. E
前提是你要承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有某些联系。) M+ l# l b3 o: H L
比如说第2527期彩票中奖号码是20 21 22 29 39 41,那么理论上第2528期的中奖* D+ y! A0 C$ v: Y$ M
号码于上期没有任何重复数字的几率是43.6%,有一个重复数字的几率是41.3%。( P1 K, H9 d3 D* z# `
对所有前2527期结果统计表明,每期与前一期没有重复数字的次数是1086,重复+ i/ |' ^: L5 ^- q/ @
1的次数是:1047。另一方面,每期与20 21 22 29 39 41比较,没有重复数字的次
/ u" B4 Q7 t" [0 Q2 c. n7 R3 [数是1102,重复1的次数是:1040。这些统计结果显示基本与理论结果一致。: R: G1 G0 }* d8 O+ y
明白人知道这里我想说明什么。
. q; ^( | p& Z" z |" c在第2528期中,不同的组合,其出现的机率是不一致的。比如,与2527期重复2或
" X/ y1 S+ f4 J6 x& d7 B o& C大于2的组合,其出现机率要小于15.1%。承认历史数据与下期中奖号码有一定联系1 ]3 @5 D, n" Z: q
后,你可以设计不同的参数去分析,其中某些是非常有效的。大家分析同一个对象, \0 X. K8 p+ ?
但具体方法不同,其结论有天地之差。比如国内很多“专家”出书,分析奇偶,目前为8 b' o+ ]2 L+ X1 D! P% M% h6 Q
止,没看到任何实用的分析方法。简单的通过近期奇数个数、偶数个数来判断下期
5 U3 z" w( B; e8 I$ o; f奇偶分配,简直就是天方夜谭、痴人说梦。对具体的分析对象、分析方法的讨论,
% k- S6 C$ R9 l1 |/ X- V有时间时再听俺下文分解俺自己的心得。也请各位高人帮助填补下面内容。/ d3 R) B9 n0 ?, i* {2 Y o
小赌可以养家糊口,大赌可以救国救民。 |
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