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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
+ L$ b* x0 i! D! h2 J$ ^( ^* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
9 y: d* q% b; b: T3 B* K, o! b" d. L凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k& u( O. H' [* U" g" z4 m" P" P4 k
8 P5 }( ^( @2 }/ s0 z6 A# o- W2 [" [G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率); r/ S2 d% h$ D. j
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [& z) o; T q8 v( P: X/ K* k
! K* L& y3 Q' ^8 S$ w5 r
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h& M0 Z' Q r* [; a) C' O6 q
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
' [5 e7 s1 A c9 Y7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
1 J5 X! P0 u$ T做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `. |& [, p: z3 V# X; G
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
( U9 R4 C2 G0 t6 n(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n9 X' D8 {+ r) l
' o# Z; G2 ]1 ^# @) p' H(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
# T% {& h# q2 o) [8 k. q
1 M' W4 ?: ?- e9 H# J: o(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t$ o0 I; C5 L" e1 e: e5 @7 O; }
0 ^0 R" Y6 w9 T
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 0 g! b. b f# w: P* S$ _
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _. f$ q# h% [/ i8 P2 Z x
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 % y4 Z8 e2 R4 Z1 [7 Z5 d. i
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c2 y7 }0 D+ G+ [* P
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
Z, g- n& x" A2 B) Y, Y! L; y, a, P) {# {) D
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 2 U9 C, O6 a7 ?, V
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
/ Z5 U4 v6 n1 }- E- @S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
! W6 D, g* W: U2 {! q5 V6 M9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
5 k! E/ V) w* A5 i# d; {S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
- c) r8 R r. {+ {' h$ {! J9 Y5 X8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v! w0 X w3 b. V) a
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 " d& E4 [( \7 G' W5 ^5 }" _% N! d
) e& i# i9 r0 }: ]# U+ z4 A8 U4 g1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
! @- @& E+ A& }8 r
$ {, B( S8 ]" |+ \: x+ [" I1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q) g P. D6 R. v8 j: M
- R& L& b: j( F4 I+ A/ [
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
$ ^( ~$ m% f; ~1 e4 {. }! S0 K: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
1 h$ M' L% g ?+ FS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T" D- R! F" L5 S0 ^7 }
# c2 R& l2 p% Z! R. o类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
' m; w/ m* S. w% f3 K+ L# d' @) F9 T( |7 U( @' A
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; / v: N9 |! l% g
7 \" E0 X" \% d3 D1 J
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s' t2 Z6 ]/ u; S" M: ?6 N# M
; m' V% T, u, P% O
- I7 |" {: O, V g& G; CS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 0 K" x. j9 R5 B9 p
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
3 M1 Y& e# J. `5 pS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 / F9 j* T5 t, F _/ W# S: v
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
6 D+ I5 V) l( }6 K7 F(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
$ g2 @4 e1 K, `/ O* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
/ S+ k9 R7 X; N( `8 I" d好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
0 [4 h/ g* z6 ^- ]4 S6 J/ c) q( ], k9 L T& t, Z1 R C: {' _. K9 b
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
' Q! a6 U3 t! K; J$ l- A0 `
`* G( V3 ]; l5 e+ `& |F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
% i1 b% d3 y7 N6 W+ d. h& U' r
1 a G" ~! x+ w7 g" n8 N [于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?8 Z: d# |: I+ L
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {+ u4 X% ~$ o& y0 z* h) Y
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
! V q" q: W) g, w( }8 @+ D$ n) P# X# M
+ N. |; j0 a0 c+ ?. DG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 1 C3 k% A& w# o
# E: o* m: |3 N+ E- A# f0 U
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]# F# k( R/ ]4 v- h
1 L1 p7 h+ q: q( N
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \; l) s, C" }: |0 U
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
3 Z0 i4 ], K, p' I0 p9 Y通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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