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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑+ P8 G! i, e6 v* q3 }# x9 S4 x. y
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k9 j m1 C. d/ V6 f. o
; ]0 p/ w9 X/ d& E/ b, J D" d3 UG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
, i- D/ s/ E" A( F3 |* t5 |5 v& [什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [( @$ |: r- C: E% ^
. C& I+ m- a7 q* V0 ?2 n& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
1 z! @% u( h7 X既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
( s" k6 z7 C9 C- K4 M9 I' E7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s$ d% L: _7 K- o$ v+ Q- T: E8 }+ x
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
+ x* J% w! Y- r6 y* }: t3 m7 u0 ?; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
: e0 i' b( P1 A% I(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
4 k$ X7 `3 F. z- j, K. Y
6 R. `1 X7 v3 U$ x% w+ ?(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 * T( T4 g1 j7 e; k
( B5 w6 W$ X: Q
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t! ^( ?# ?4 }8 G: \; p$ ?% ^
: f, o$ B) Q5 R1 }1 ]0 x6 f
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
E9 r# `! Q' E! U* }- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _) y( L: ^% f( V6 H) j0 N
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 ( S7 S- B9 @ c: S4 u5 |" h
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S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
1 ^1 j" d9 c Q* o; V. l3 r, h: ?0 L x* K# |9 z3 ]' j$ N
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
$ ]$ d, m/ q9 B5 B! R2 h( O7 E% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s2 Z% U+ h% y9 C$ }
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 * @4 A; S4 _# n& p# A, i0 b4 r( ~
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
8 e* T+ H0 o: K8 Q' m0 tS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \- H" g: v: g# Q( i- `: \* Z
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
. f+ L0 ~5 ?7 p6 C- q# P+ E6 j( a1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
9 g+ b3 s7 S$ {8 c) T) x
% r6 \0 K5 z3 g; E6 t* i% j1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l& O$ [1 L6 ^5 L A( R' ^6 c) f
6 K5 G0 F- d3 b" m8 R1 ?1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
" S4 h. l, [7 [$ R+ D P! E5 |: o9 Q) S4 ^
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
5 x+ F& j3 l: G+ X8 q: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
$ e& q s4 ]5 Q; }; b FS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
" |" b1 r# V/ J8 u2 |
6 X, W. g! R4 m! j8 B* K) |. p& `类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j! y g; c n* @. c$ b. Z# o
- M% m8 s4 Y5 y, [. @& P1 ~% z( iS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; ; n! i/ v& ^# S, p
. _' s# m7 f& |2 T
S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
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S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 u1 L# @* \* f+ S3 j
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a, \2 j/ Q& W5 Q$ a
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 7 Y8 R) h5 U% ^/ u
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~2 f* z$ b' T+ X- c
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o. X4 w4 I0 n3 ?
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& A5 _0 X' \! s9 X好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 : y. n# W" z+ {3 x0 o; S
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B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
8 t& _, s4 n. [. i3 X' _) _/ F, A! B) `8 e! I" L1 F
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
+ `: r1 ^- S9 O! _- v$ A- x
7 x! W: m$ \; Y; n. v b于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?, V* u) `& y+ w. s% Z& [; ~
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {7 P& g4 g) ~& V; a
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M' Y: E$ t& {2 Q, ~# W
+ D$ n) P# X# M
J- N8 S# z# _+ Y- f9 _/ zG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 ; Y# ^7 G" T, e: _. z% \# W: ^4 t
- U* o2 F- R" y4 x/ A9 ?2 i2 C7 ]G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]/ Y" {7 C6 f; c' C$ I
+ J% L6 d1 Y+ s, n* S当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
' n0 j7 C1 a& m/ F4 H7 y7 {6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i5 h4 }7 x" Q" @/ ^* _: s+ q
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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