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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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+ z: I9 @5 f4 A* U& J刚刚认真计算了一次;9 _+ ?- ]# K, B. E  B- F0 c! w7 ]
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:: g6 {3 L3 N9 E; `" c- ]1 d

/ _% w- n! Q& X/ j6 q+ p# h; t开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;* J! h( b6 t3 S" f- Q! N
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开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72( i! k: P9 I2 R1 k% ?
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;, z- T  V2 F: F, S/ y
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加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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& M  o/ K- T5 v以上,76gor( j$ o6 }: _; C7 W' j
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;* j* y- l: _# R# b

* R8 ~+ g3 N" H. ]) r$ x# K假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,2 ?: N! J# h: z" u

3 |; F: ]( n5 R% H$ f1 f一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
0 K% L' j% e  }- a# f每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152% n  Q& K9 y+ ^$ x3 U
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
  \" \9 x$ G- N9 {1 c% y* V5 @& T: ]
每天净收入为:¥6521 X; S* O# d- z( }: ?

( {$ `! W5 S+ I1 \7 z年收入为:¥237,980
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4 p* \0 e2 ]' J) k唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;& e+ Y1 P* ^2 A4 r" n
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor
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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?
2 I8 ~& D  S2 j) E7 Z( [' J2 v/ eTerrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

3 Q- Q1 {/ Y1 }# a" ^6 j# q6 G' @% w9 S

5 P1 A2 s; M/ y( X9 b& W3 K    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
$ {, I; [) O4 Qbeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
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    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:, O& N2 ~' M- q1 h; h+ W6 O
0 t# ]" l$ i4 ~
开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...8 G( T4 u3 D$ m) R. p
76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏: h/ \( o& }2 q) E! Z# X
大概是1%多点
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1 M6 \# W, P7 |# `2 U至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏/ Q' q+ D: R" W5 {; z4 Y* n$ L  m
大概是1%多点2 Q3 q# F3 d$ @# G, q- a4 y3 w, E: U( C
+ b  G7 S. `* N3 T! J8 |/ E% W
至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
$ X. Q$ F6 _: w4 Staishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27
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; H4 ^$ l% |; ~: l( K7 V: O    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?# y0 r$ l* e; N0 t: i) l2 l
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor 8 _, w3 O5 m* v% C# S: r9 l9 u# l
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8 E9 }: y5 e" X9 i2 t   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor ! N& M; D# G5 b0 |; `8 y
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!( c2 @3 z. o- n+ y, b- z2 V+ y, |! s
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

  d4 G  B1 ?4 {& `! G
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5 D+ Z5 p/ E$ L  p/ I& ^* Q: g; c    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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