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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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1#
本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑   E3 N0 S" E$ r
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刚刚认真计算了一次;* c' h9 m9 ?6 t- G, m7 M
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:" ]% T: f0 K( R8 o- j

, S8 A3 A: ^8 K! r开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;( t" w4 K* Z% Y3 b! n5 w' s% @

2 \3 C* ^: V4 t8 L- N开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72! \: u# I; m  b

/ j6 U% m( D* S6 V/ ?开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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* N0 ^0 N! s1 K# e) n收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5! W& Y5 e- |: u1 r! S& y$ n
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" ^% [: K1 E1 d5 V# @所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;6 h% T. d+ s/ ^% p/ }2 {, [
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加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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" c- }$ x5 J, A, W以上,76gor
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,0001 O  O+ y# U' f! j" H% _( X# I
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152* Q  N7 F) z$ ~* K/ ?
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
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6 f3 k9 P1 q0 V. R* f3 U* i! K每天净收入为:¥652
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年收入为:¥237,980
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2 ~, J. g& [" x; d% W$ f. J唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;  o* m3 C. R6 V1 a4 f
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;- \8 ?. B! w  u+ g

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回复 2# 76gor 8 y: _5 w) P3 }  K

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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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7#
最近流行探讨这个话题?: h/ T- t2 N) l' X
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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- F& v) U$ A/ Q$ B9 a2 u2 f5 ^    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
" E+ _6 _5 S, @% A: K9 l( Pbeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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/ u3 _7 J# _8 F8 J9 w    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;5 K& b% p  J9 x

( n7 B* w9 ?& \7 m! n( Q& J( G假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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1 @( J, g1 L# Y" ~开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
: l5 T4 b4 Z4 |  I- X- F% ~$ D76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏* T" `- C; N, c
大概是1%多点) A. c& v4 V% Q+ o

! W. U- l) D# g. f) T至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏  d2 @/ C: V5 x' y( H5 [' O9 J4 w; \
大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
) I4 V  Y$ S! I5 I! P; Ytaishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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7 u' V* ?, Y$ z) |/ B5 s  K    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
6 R* o' L% J9 j% S& w粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26
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    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
( ]1 p4 p& H0 u6 ^' {粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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8 K8 R6 |( W1 {& T: ?5 m    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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