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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
/ B0 Q) a2 g/ W: K* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c* T0 b/ u& c7 _% w) O
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
' \9 p3 l+ `6 t6 P
% g0 d1 M$ b' t( c- j3 qG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
% }+ K( m; l, b1 J: {# N什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [# S! ^- q" l' g9 Z" ^& Z0 G
9 O! h, _5 P( Y8 W
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
6 H/ L: _ C+ t既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 8 u4 ]5 p( `7 l0 D$ T" s1 c4 G
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s( Y- O- G8 W8 D: X
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `) J% O" \- l6 ?- C7 h# |
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d) \7 k) E P3 L. t3 G) g. J
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n p% N* f9 x; Y' I3 e+ A1 ]
! ^0 y _$ d9 I ^, p' K, I# ~% }
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
) L# V, M8 ^2 O/ }3 _+ T: V8 E7 J" h( B: {6 ~7 V& ~' k
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
% z r( m% {1 f \& C" u% F$ V k
8 r5 _' |( A' N. g(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
# D- b2 @1 {0 j' m" H- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
1 M- R7 g% {. |6 p6 M& J) d2 t! x我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 . Y- J+ M H5 _ q" L$ p8 N
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
/ E |; S+ k! y; W. aS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
# u1 @ }1 V' V
! J" b% E. v( e3 \8 e/ AS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 4 P0 e1 D! V9 z" F0 _$ G' M8 Y
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
M. a- n3 |/ F4 q) }S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 . q) a) U: y& I$ `9 O' l
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j4 S' F3 T, N) E. s& @
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
9 U: A4 r& }2 x% K: e& x5 ]8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v$ J. a4 I' P( T7 c
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
4 p, p, }* n& ^
- Q2 D2 t: u( g1 ^1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l+ @. R" Y+ H; N% P
c, }) C9 `4 z
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q$ ?- L$ r2 V; S4 U0 n, C
- w C$ ^" j5 ^; u# x9 M% y. G1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 5 x$ u+ Y2 |! Y }9 t: \
: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r4 K9 N) Z7 ~7 ` i
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
6 `7 n1 v1 [1 E/ k; C( Z/ B# B
0 a( h! @% b9 J' h+ h5 w F类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j( T3 g" B- f1 o# |5 M t
" L. [- z* ~+ T+ |
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
! u6 p$ s/ V1 d! M( }' }
* C4 o0 j+ ?+ G; J2 YS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s4 h7 S: u2 T; w$ F7 n! y
; m' V% T, u, P% O
3 h6 C) B8 n% v4 QS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
0 u, S# H* M- H/ p4 i: u) ~5 b6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
% c5 t, J- I/ S0 Y: O' T! ?7 i7 rS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 ' V g- X' ?) B0 F. G* l
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
- x9 C$ A4 k4 h) {% y1 |(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
7 {4 D B8 A* m* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \" t8 B* z3 q2 x r4 x2 [
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 : m" E9 W7 P4 b' w* D. W ?2 o
) q( ], k9 L T& t
! h i6 z- `3 P! ?1 bB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 ; e+ Z# Z$ B+ v7 _9 d6 e
7 d9 {1 A7 X- VF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
) S% B3 a" L' P( q4 Y+ t2 Y8 T- R% A ~: A
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
L/ l8 B+ o" [1 Z9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
) \, k, p5 ^& zG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M+ i( z- K# ~% E
+ D$ n) P# X# M
- A- c2 d% M3 wG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
! Z% h a" I) q' [$ a, c! y+ `( l( G2 n! |( \0 `4 {. @# ?) M) _, S
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]; _( J6 ?/ e1 w% H. ?" A# u1 T6 A- I
- O+ d5 v& f7 I# f; m/ o当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
, c0 [; w- i9 L6 \- g: U d& C7 z6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
/ `* G7 D+ r; i& B9 Q w% n, c通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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