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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑* b7 {) Z2 v! r* l5 g' `: @
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2 M2 I: @5 g( \) v3 E* A' Z: f0 n4 ]& D& z凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k" O2 D( Z _3 A$ N( |8 i
5 S& G; G5 [: F0 H- L4 yG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)
6 q% b1 N- } b# b$ J4 ~, W! W0 \什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [% e0 s' g: h6 _9 ~( t$ t; v; K2 a
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& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
. K& y) |, O& d1 l' W! z- E. K既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！
, J' f. u; K2 S0 {7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
! x1 I; i. y. q9 t2 ?( Y* f5 H做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
% H* U" x* g* ?# f5 e7 _) d; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d7 q! b& K$ l1 h, m' T: q
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n, Q4 N7 p+ U8 s% V2 C" f$ g; m: X
8 o) m9 w! j" m(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 . n# F" y$ [1 U* X& r8 L
/ g, T3 m3 w4 R3 {8 b0 L(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
1 i% `" b/ u) h5 z; }5 Y- S. ?- Y) h$ b% v" C! M
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 8 _5 z& F* B3 v2 h- X/ z9 c
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _' m, b6 C' b/ t
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值
7 r! q( D/ H' m, ~! h5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c, y: v, ]) E1 T5 C
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
* O3 N, Z& {3 b- G/ L3 J
~9 h/ V9 S5 K& m9 r) s1 |S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 6 ~6 ~' [' u: [! r1 \
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
0 R% R) U8 k' H9 v1 TS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
( {: u# y9 Y( x$ V$ B- [6 \: ^9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
" c$ N/ k. p5 [% }- k& c+ wS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
" |8 c9 A' T- \. \5 R* v8 u! z {; j8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
6 X) H/ g$ t ^' r- ?8 u: a; n! ^/ V1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 8 t* @- H7 r6 `
9 I. V0 \8 c' X) M1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
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6 [3 X3 [9 `5 c' ?% e% n1 _6 n9 }1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q8 u# i1 t2 c1 h, ^' ]4 }
4 F: [ k: Y) ?4 i
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
5 T+ w7 j) u7 Y/ p* h3 g7 k% \- V: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
0 k' J" e# [% k+ \. h g+ YS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
- `1 |* N( C. e+ e0 u. s8 n( Q9 B0 h5 _
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j. B2 X! j3 `3 \. ~0 j% d
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S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
0 o" F( W. d1 R% {; b; I
& v; n& P3 H1 Y4 f& d! R% z' TS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
1 y4 @, V' l9 h6 K* g$ i; ~; m' V% T, u, P% O
! V: @1 @0 F1 _* G2 C HS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 8 w5 R: q. i- i+ B" h U$ ^
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
. G7 o/ H) S" e9 F/ L% h2 W5 C# SS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 6 J( L& P, R* R d, O/ t
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
; Q: D/ @3 h& {$ k6 n(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
) c: _* k. o7 I3 w, w* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
2 M6 n; `9 F( p好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
7 {0 c; O' h" ]. @$ {( ^) q( ], k9 L T& t
, n7 y( i% P$ A4 sB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
( Q# v/ \; c, l9 j; B* t; z; Z! o, x$ ~
8 K3 w( e0 {0 G1 R% j* F2 ?F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
; V6 X+ x9 K$ S6 `1 h
* s% u* v1 a' f( ^$ X8 h于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?+ d# B! R$ o+ ~2 P
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
$ g5 w0 N+ j3 O! U- ]; ~! N. u; eG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M' @8 s0 |% e1 N" L6 n+ M. N
+ D$ n) P# X# M
7 @' G! L3 R, |" Z# u8 T# F8 T6 \G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
* j5 P) S2 B# @+ V9 [0 E: r$ {: `( Q. r$ l9 g( V7 f$ c+ i
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]1 c8 E' G+ o x9 N( B6 N1 O: p2 ^5 ?
3 P. Z9 w2 F: H7 w/ Y4 x当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \/ h3 Z( E7 S0 x( f7 a8 ~. G
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
5 D& M0 C, }2 L& ]9 c D3 v通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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