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一、我们先假设一个抽样数W={W(ij)|i,j∈N}, W(ij)就是比赛的进球结果,i,j分别表示主客队的进球数。
# K; ^. q& y2 p/ k2 r4 f: |那么,平局、主胜、客胜就有以下表达式:0 i0 B! j) C: {, a
A(d) = {W(ij)|i=j, i∈N, j∈N}0 [/ c4 ?! k7 k7 X' X, }- s
A(h) = {W(ij)|i>j, i∈N, j∈N}& j1 C" z+ J6 Y
A(a) = {W(ij)|i 接着我们引入一个符号P(i)表示平胜负的概率,P(Ai)∈[0,1]:+ t* N7 j8 X/ E; @
P(i)=P(Ai), i∈{0, 1, 2}
2 z, B, d/ W9 b) j) z8 Q. E6 W6 Q二、首先来说说平手盘(即0:0Handicaps或我们经常在国外上看到的(Moneyline)
" R! f; V7 G" N! a7 F/ u2 z( J假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:. b7 a u% O- n) A$ Y6 R; Y' t
{b(h) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生% d% H4 O! _) V5 x1 E7 }6 b
R(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
6 i! {( j3 ^# v) {) C3 B{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
$ q0 l8 e* s0 G% E1 P) d以及
4 y$ ^9 J. i% J. x2 L+ }' j- D{b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生* s& z' b: F, ~* I# ?4 M
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生. V& }" w7 V. _$ m8 h( B
{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
& Y3 n' z1 L c+ o4 o如果O(h)表示平手盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示平手盘下的客队赔率8 W3 J& P0 \; M. }- l
那么投注主客的期望回报总数分别为( L) s7 K9 I x$ g
E[R(1)]=P(d)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]
2 C8 s2 W- @. V, H, _( }" x% nE[R(2)]=P(d)*b(a)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]5 A0 F. d4 b# ]. [9 `
按照真实赔率(暂不包含庄家优势),我们可以认为实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
: z# t: o8 v/ I7 ^. Q. ~- S) ZE[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(d)+p(h)O(h)]=b(h)$ I& F- ~7 O7 i$ G' q8 ?
P(d)+p(h)O(h)=1
/ p9 K4 n5 r+ m: UO(h)=(1-P(d))/P(h)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算主队赔率的公式6 V( O _- U) |) `! n3 y( o6 k' o
E[R(2)]=b(a)*[P(d)+p(a)O(a)]=b(a) e; Y S. L8 O. H9 ]* f& h
P(d)+p(a)O(a)=1
4 T9 Q! D& e* r. b* S9 qO(a)=(1-P(d))/P(a)-----这里就得出平手盘下计算客队赔率的公式; G: [. Q; O: z7 c. C" C
在极端情况下,可以认为平手盘亚洲赔率(或moneyline),就是在不发生平局结果条件下(就是公式中P(d)=0),主胜客胜概率的倒数
7 a7 w3 P; \$ w7 B, p; G2 M三、半球盘的计算描述
5 F& M6 S3 G& ~9 s" E7 L8 B& R接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受半球(1/2:0 Handicaps的情况)
- b( W. J" _* J" V$ J/ E还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
& R& q# H9 ^* h5 ?{O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
$ f: e% r& ^. x$ M* J+ V% z* cR(1)={O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的A(h)结果发生$ t8 L+ Z6 k" c4 p; f5 M9 n# h$ G0 M
{0 , 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
9 ?6 x4 I1 J; J) H5 r# G以及
# m/ [2 ]- G2 u; B" q{0 , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
' T# \1 Y+ ]0 e9 U' g6 x& fR(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生
1 F7 Z) }# e2 P9 _6 R7 Q. {' B{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的A(a)结果发生
6 |) h% W* |% K; Q2 m如果O(h)表示受半球盘下的主队赔率,O(a)表示客队赔率
- P4 M! L- k% l! T投注主客的期望回报总数分别为" R4 }3 J6 r, ^7 o4 s
E[R(1)]=P(d)*O(h)*b(h)+P(h)*O(h)*b(h)=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]
) a& _$ I' f- E6 p/ C% [3 wE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)
' {# w* `; L: ]2 A; I& s假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等6 ^7 O3 F) u8 G% Y* a
E[R(1)]=b(h)*O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=b(h)$ Z5 w1 x6 X/ ^+ O
O(h)*[P(d)+p(h)]=1
6 A7 e+ @$ T) v! D# PO(h)=1/[P(d)+p(h)]
$ T3 p1 o* t) S) jE[R(2)]=P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)
# y+ t! i; i f C# {P(a)*O(a)=15 d$ y( h* u" j! s: C/ b
O(a)=1/P(a) s7 x5 T: @8 U0 J2 }
同样道理可以计算让半球(0:1/2 Handicaps)的亚洲盘赔率2 h! H1 Q: t5 |& @0 p
O(h)=1/p(h)) f0 L, K# H! [3 V- I
O(a)=1/[P(d)+p(a)]
- [1 r1 @ }7 L& b四、平半球盘的计算描述# j- o0 Y, W, R. a
这个稍复杂一点
) y( Y- c! @' H" Y' I接着我们来看看主队(HOME TEAM)受平半球(1/4:0 Handicaps的情况): `0 H1 J1 k) ]$ }$ n
还是假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额计算:
|6 b* R$ \; ~3 H6 ?" M0 u! y4 m& V{[O(h)+1]/2×b(h), 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生
3 G: e) O7 H' ^& B% k; _: |R(1)={O(h)*b(h), 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生9 y! a& W5 `* v/ n* G; ?& ~9 D3 G- e
{0, 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生0 O) b' [9 J/ H) X( ~
以及+ u4 S2 K3 |) D7 j% F
{1/2×b(a) , 即上面所述的A(d)结果发生. u) b: A% w% ]8 Q
R(2)={0, 即上面所述的A(h)结果发生: Q2 P+ h8 `7 L3 O
{O(a)*b(a), 即上面所述的A(a)结果发生9 o. J2 g1 d" _; R% d. ^! }
投注主客的期望回报总数分别为
' K& @2 A: Y% bE[R(1)]=P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}×b(h)+P(h)×O(h)×b(h)=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))9 X; V: Z7 Y; v* V- G
E[R(2)]=1/2×b(a)×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]# k5 E& @6 a5 c0 e. z
和上面计算过程相似,得出:! J" t6 z! A& b, w
E[R(1)]=b(h)*(P(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h))=b(h)
. v9 X9 P3 c( a- s4 s( m- uP(d)×{[O(h)+1]/2}+P(h)×O(h)=18 V, ~, M2 S" y: [6 c, i" h
O(h)*[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]+1/2*P(d)=19 D, r& j/ l% X' j
O(h)=[1-1/2*P(d)]/[1/2*P(d)+P(h)]=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(h))# E' D8 j8 ?( W2 |) b
E[R(2)]=b(a)*[1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)]=b(a): `' a E' i! e i& l2 R3 } h6 L( u
1/2×P(d)+P(a)*O(a)=1
* {( p- J3 G7 _% b& Q( ]O(a)=[1-1/2×P(d)]/P(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(a)! y2 U5 `/ g: K; Y/ H7 h' o
同样主队让平半就分别是
C) L, r- k# N3 y1 }2 Q* k: HO(h)=(1-P(d)/2)/P(h), g; v4 G! F$ w" L7 }! o( Q
O(a)=(1-P(d)/2)/(P(d)/2+P(a))0 d/ G% Y9 V" _$ J ~$ D
五、一球、两球等整数盘(这里先暂时说主队让1球的情况,0:1,Handicaps,其它可以类推的)' \' L, M+ k. S" W" z+ j
可以采用类似公式,在(一)中我们分别用A(d)、A(h)、A(a)描述平局、主胜、客胜事件的发生。现在改用另外的符号代替,如B(d)、B(h)、B(a),同时除了平、胜、负概率P(i)(i=d,h,a)外,还需要引入一个一个概率值P(hX)来代表主队赢一球(X=1)、二球(X=2)...的概率,下面来进行演算
6 ^" k- q% [% q+ Z% L) t* EB(d) = {W(ij)|i=j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}
u, Y! z5 T5 xB(h) = {W(ij)|i>j+k, i∈N, j∈N,k∈N}
) {. q4 d2 {6 Q! d9 b8 _ h+ OB(a) = {W(ij)|i i,j分别表示主客队的进球数,k代表让球数
1 n- z, `, q, g- L7 Y& J) m! a接着,假设b(h)表示主队的投注总数,b(a)表示客队的投注总数,那么投注主客队的回报总数额为:
1 f6 F* C- l' a# i. N% d{b(h)*O(h) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生3 b8 q" W' z6 {0 \' l4 Z
R(1)={b(h)-O(h)*b(h),即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
" y; K% j% o- j$ O& {3 V{0 , 即上面所述的B(a)结果发生' a a8 V0 M! `" S7 B8 ?7 p R
以及
& e- F. B S. v9 T3 z{b(a) , 即上面所述的B(d)结果发生
* S4 w* P# Y" I' q, RR(2)={0, 即上面所述的B(h)结果发生
2 G+ H! w; t% e" E+ b6 ]{O(a)*b(a),即上面所述的B(a)结果发生
( k% Q/ L7 T0 d' H投注主客的期望回报总数分别为$ Z+ Z. q) e7 E
E[R(1)]=P(h)*b(h)*O(h)+P(h1)*(b(h)-O(h)*b(h))=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]& Q q9 I2 W+ ^: h- W4 d% B
E[R(2)]=P(h1)*b(a)+(1-P(h))*O(a)*b(a)=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))- ?) R: ~; N- o6 y
假设实际投注回报与期望投注回报相等
0 P( i! P, m5 a3 h; I; j* ME[R(1)]=b(h)*[P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)]=b(h)3 [7 k/ Q3 e) \8 C4 {
P(h)*O(h)+P(h1)-P(h1)*O(h)=1& {8 w3 E: q- J: p4 \# S* O
O(h)*(P(h)-P(h1))=1-P(h1)( T4 k; v: S$ J0 X
O(h)=(1-P(h1))/(P(h)-P(h1))) E9 b7 E1 c6 S3 B5 g, C" _8 b
E[R(2)]=b(a)*(P(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a))=b(a)
& g! H9 _" S4 E: g$ i- YP(h1)+O(a)-P(h)*O(a)=1
' F* w5 ~# W; X8 K B4 }O(a)*(1-P(h))=1-P(h1)7 N, M/ {+ y. N9 m7 O# E- z2 J* s- u, }
O(a)=(1-P(h1))/(1-P(h))
+ D5 `7 M5 u, e以上(五)部分是让一球的情况,让两球以上整数盘和反过来受让整数盘是可以同样演算的。) k N8 t- g A: e2 {0 p; h$ J
简单小结一球或整数盘,其实理论的演算过程不难,但是如何准确计算赢整数球的概率(P(hi)就是其中的难点,这已经涉及到如何用相对动态实力差或球差来计算各种赢球概率(是指赢1、2、3...球的概率,也可以说是赢球比分概率)的问题,使用自己数据模型里的数据来计算。 |
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