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[lastpost] => 2763946 黄金破纪录,比特币会不会跟着起舞? 1757848966 天策-瑶娥
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。; t. Q% H8 h8 X7 o5 Y0 ? C# u8 |
( q3 k& T/ ^, [4 V2 [5 @5 v& lPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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CPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
& z: a C9 I r( U2 ^" \1 ~
. k. X% H& T* n& B% G: [& c2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期9 S8 t- f/ Y$ ^# ]
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当前持仓成本:
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" t- o8 [8 t; n) S机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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0 Y: W, y/ @0 ~$ B1 f) d微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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, Y& k& Z2 V" y; s9 R比特币价值回归:8 h) v, w. B' M- Q2 N4 R- H- C
7 r! }# D. m- s, m市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。! y" A9 H: Z- v. v
@" x0 U8 n0 H2 ?. g( h% r随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
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加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。' y9 A2 c% a4 p6 v$ ~
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3. 市场热点与反弹情况* f8 p2 ]4 u! a2 t8 m4 i! X9 g
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ETH:+ X& M, p/ N6 _3 E. ^: C1 C
/ x) w1 v* y2 y4 p虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。- `1 w3 K- k& }; j0 }8 W5 N
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机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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BTC:
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
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如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。: c' t5 ?! h5 `' J/ r L
6 X1 R$ V! b) l e- d% j, rSOL与XRP:
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/ k: {% S/ n: j; F) mSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。! |$ G- X' t* G) N3 C. s5 }. v, F: L
6 W9 W; ^! O/ G7 v) O7 fXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。9 z6 S' H# _6 s; [/ W
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其他热点项目:" V- v, x% V I% B: q+ m3 ~4 w" s
7 m( |# `( P( @( v6 S4 x, V涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。7 A3 t& N- l7 S" h% H
$ [4 S& U4 j4 j" U2 j4 _$ P1 B4. AI赛道与新兴项目, S4 n& n x% I5 a0 r* y
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。$ T0 k. \6 p! X) G* m
. U. r% P0 q) V2 R* ~& G蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。6 R, h/ A; z. X5 c0 A' [" l5 J
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。5 {5 }$ R/ f# o# O# c! _# p
: u: K% I! U Q) D. V: t- U( m市场展望) l+ l/ \' }9 K0 Y7 Y0 V! S
- v% ~, K1 w# X2 Q3 B随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。; F0 s- T6 x: G9 u
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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