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[lastpost] => 2764668 比特币大幅回调 此前借加密资产扩张的企业在市场降温后出现抛售潮 1757583153 rainwang
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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* g$ V' o9 T% }/ ^, \瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心0 i8 O: n0 f# k* a0 j1 a) A
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
. v8 C( m( G( |& B9 H/ ]美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金% T4 w$ c( Y. h2 X# m& D6 c: f
) W% w G( `5 x融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。. U4 }! v3 w* y6 ?6 a* N
/ z- D) J' K, m. t$ u' ~. A% R# D+ j过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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' T9 Y" ^, J s" n率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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B/ d8 j a* ~, [0 _8 B& {然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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是表示：2 {7 y9 j( h, x' b, F7 F
( |. ?8 K: C1 Z# f5 o+ K9 @这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。* l0 h" B7 k- U( }* T9 x
5 u3 F, S4 J4 V/ W4 W历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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* _ j+ r1 D8 t) \特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史( a) E* C; L7 F: T: c
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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$ Z& [+ W0 b- S4 c' x6 i' X周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。
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! `4 W# C+ G& j) s$ a% E" M周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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+ S' ?9 Y& u8 x周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债: W9 M! y* b# e2 j* u/ M3 b6 T
3 F% e& @/ q9 b, L$ R# i- G; m收益率冲高回落。
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5 F' W5 `# o1 f# N+ b7 A周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。! b! S, W) W% |3 f8 h
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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$ H8 k5 `$ m( k4 e! o% a7 z* w, }是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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! w5 x! ^: r$ w- U; L$ Q根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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6 \1 V o! C1 W: mRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"' ?8 y% [, N0 W5 ?7 I4 O5 u5 b
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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