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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。- v7 A: Q( }( ~. t* m. h
4 M) W5 r* j/ O! \0 P- u瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”2 g2 L+ y4 N% T! A4 o
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。( c, ^& U% m3 p' v" M
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益2 T! h* ^9 M) r8 j% w% u3 }1 h
6 l$ v! k7 Z( a率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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% \1 w p/ i; g3 m+ O. |然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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) O" c2 O6 \5 p6 ?( Y1 K长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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* p" o) P5 D* F6 I历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史; w1 P7 H U) e, G0 h# \/ w
) @4 j% F! z: D" b标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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/ e7 l& S$ ] Z5 u8 i, P7 S周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。1 [. R( E$ _# x, y
( r6 x: `6 S+ N! z* ~周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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: e/ O S, w3 |6 S周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债1 M0 x9 A3 e- O+ g" g" g g9 h
& \; g+ r( O8 g% [: \' I' P- o收益率冲高回落。
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' g! _) {- A$ y! d; f周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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$ n) z4 a* L8 L& b2 k% r6 T周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。) N4 ^/ n8 a7 i. {$ q
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, N' n; D6 V$ ^1 X' e% ~( N$ ^Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，, b5 G% ~, q" }# \
" x1 l. v( A! x' l是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去* z: q3 N$ B$ M' {5 G, g
1 o1 J% Q, T! y4 K& n; b- n" t年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。* S |$ K/ w$ g6 Q
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, \$ I1 i0 I$ m/ e; w# \! URenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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