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[lastpost] => 2750705 比特币成“救国神器”?英财政部想靠72亿美元加密资产填财政缺口 1753374021 天策-瑶娥
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中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称,加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性,自诞生以来成长迅速,并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大,# {2 c- T3 m3 { L, Z
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高,加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内,预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于+ B* p# \. C, i8 K* W( {) J0 s
, |: Y4 }0 m; E6 k3 d% p逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币,但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松,但需等待贸易、外交政
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" W- f8 i2 f: q策的确定性。. l3 B6 F( h a# T" p1 }: j
& z5 {' b: R- J8 G/ Q, \0 m5 G 中信证券主要观点如下:
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/ D3 b6 x2 o# Q) A5 d 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币,具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。! T# v2 R# o2 @+ a' @
) X9 `3 B) m2 C+ s8 N/ k 自其诞生以来,市场成长迅速,例如比特币呈指数型增长。
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9 S7 W3 O% ]1 X1 r 近期加密货币表现不佳,并未体现出避险属性。
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) y1 v5 X5 n+ f( i) Z$ C2 f 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨,分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高;以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现
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不佳,与黄金走势背离,并未体现出避险属性。
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5 d9 R% F+ \8 |7 n" h 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。
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5 A+ l& \: W. {8 V 从规模来看,加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场,增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看,两者都是集中度较高,且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明,均有利于价格的长期上行。: a' T; A* V% `, |9 ^, N
; o3 @* F! Q. F7 Z6 C 加密货币开始出现刚性需求,形成与黄金类似的刚需托底,投机定价的格局。
( k8 q, M) `4 S4 E5 N6 G/ U4 S7 f, _" Y. _2 ]8 Z% s. S) F# e9 ^8 N: w7 ]
由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势,形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”,与黄金一样形成了刚需,以确保其难以出现泡沫
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。/ g; k; Q. V4 A* u! N9 |/ O9 s
( U7 y* Z1 I6 I( t6 Y0 y ] 短期内,加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金,因此表现背离。
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我们认为根本的原因是1)社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2)由于加密货币高成长性,边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内,加密货币避险属性和投机属性7 z& q5 Z) H; C* m9 r5 q& S
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共存,后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。
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长期来看,加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间,最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化,驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。
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/ P$ k1 \7 j' G7 P8 O5 u 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续,预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上,黄金和加密货币的货币属性,都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣
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! y1 L& x8 |( Y; n势,比特币不必然是未来的黄金,但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此,我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间,比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。
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~5 C& z; X, ]; r/ B0 h 展望未来四年,比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼,但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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! P* l4 A% k6 d, d& \" F策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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& J! [" n) |( `& d 风险因素:: U. z1 ]' [/ A/ Y8 K' Z# @
: F4 Q1 W$ b) @1 l( ]1 C' @0 N 特朗普ZF政策超预期;美国联邦债务问题超预期;美联储货币政策宽松不及预期;地缘ZZ风险。
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