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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率8 F; _; U6 [: O- H( Y
5 H; A7 r% G0 z: G# R7 l2 d以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:$ }" u/ T5 B3 ]
4 l: X; q( n: c
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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' x% P4 b! E0 ]# N+ n+ S' d很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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! |/ R2 |+ ~+ Z4 ^# x. J. R' V以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?! w: h$ h l! f5 f. Y# M' O
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% w S R# f, X" m" a1 p盈利可能性# G2 Q) h u* w% I
0 z* u8 O6 b. r, g9 _1 O对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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" u& \& z3 E) f8 f增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?6 m" K \8 a2 u* T+ o/ a( O
4 w/ n: }# a2 g | za) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 + ~! @; B: P8 o, r, A Z4 R; c
1 `2 X% \+ d5 a9 @7 o2 B正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么' c# B7 Q6 k9 n8 b; b7 F
/ X. o' U! E; G! h: e40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
1 ^: d5 p& T3 G/ q. M60%的机会你会一无所有6 _+ y3 `! S, z
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 . R1 F& N& l. u
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。9 e- @5 a) j m+ C F! o' L0 n
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。: ?! N( p o# {8 @! D0 Q/ K8 p
; B) j! u% K- g3 x8 F4 c基于增值的投注- N4 F' p0 t' ]# m4 v1 ^" t
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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# P- n7 R+ V2 I9 p5 k4 L. j$ I公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1), g# v) D% f; J- J5 U; Q" v& r
' U5 g8 e) f! _( F" {1 R$ A1 KA=博彩资金
/ z( D) j% h, P1 KP=获胜机会9 M$ Y& g& d" V V6 i& s2 e
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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& ^! R/ g4 l$ z0 F" G* a. b1 w首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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" h4 J& b3 x6 Q1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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# F! F; v. I: [3 |. V; \1 d* N' W3 tA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)7 `# v. {, c( H7 O/ @2 i+ {" T4 f
! t ~( ~% q" {+ ^1 N0 oA=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢$ h" ]1 A" ?- d
3 S$ l/ _& O& Z+ \5 T2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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& X# {* }' P; i5 zA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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+ h% @1 l' c8 V. CA=0.1; O9 L; ]3 G( t4 d
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)" x S6 o2 y' j, v
2 I( z3 L7 Q& N; w' ]& m& tA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)4 R3 j, c; |6 \6 p
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A= -0.2 6 ~! ]$ b) N/ S3 k
7 A. h" V, w& E: D4 S结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好; H! o: W1 _. D/ a
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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