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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑' f) F) ?" {, t4 `" L
* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
2 h# x. F. v8 F凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
: s1 w) g( ~0 s9 C- c4 L8 V) }, L- T3 S2 u& p4 B4 }2 e3 g0 q
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)# w+ `1 Z$ J2 w/ N7 x% F7 T
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [$ [5 @0 a- a; Q& _% ]
9 U G9 a+ f& P, ?& M4 d* c& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h9 p4 ~& ?. R7 B
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ ' [0 f8 @ G: Y& a1 }
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s& q6 t( x* H6 c9 d. i4 W
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `+ p$ {2 h. T( K. P, X
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
4 J6 p( G0 R& J5 h1 j# N(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n5 F) U) {1 s: G8 t
5 Y* g- G4 h6 ~- a(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 9 j- s$ e+ o! E3 L
2 d5 l8 S# M# C n' Y/ J
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
1 x# i; Q. h9 ~& j& U1 D. \; J. y1 d \0 r% H
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 $ O4 z% n1 t2 v* M
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
0 @* s: p$ C# U! b我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 % ], m& A" S! X$ a
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
8 ~; \/ M; T; l5 c! @, MS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
+ l+ c) h$ W7 d1 |1 K1 r1 V
9 E) {8 ]# H# U3 eS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 `9 x8 V& q' m6 U8 ]* a
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s% n$ F1 ?- i8 R4 V5 v
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 ( Y+ ]- ]6 {0 P8 m+ y
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j( T; N2 U; e, ]' @1 H' Q4 M' a
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
% H6 H' b+ `& Z# y- G8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v* n% g! V& t: S2 }& A' {# p
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
* e9 n" H! s3 m$ o6 D0 } t/ K$ O, V. [. s. T1 e
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
4 {4 \! _( x5 ]. m; p
u$ ^5 _. M0 L+ d0 I* L' T& u1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
3 y3 @8 N* {, q! d a
' X( e* q8 Y: |0 v1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
8 n5 z' s" k. l( B, j _: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r
) C4 E# w6 ?6 c _. |: GS1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
, B# ~! o# w" y( g5 ~; Q7 O& o! k/ ^6 M( S
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
1 N( s k6 [0 E/ Q
; b B! p M6 G' E% B. g @S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; . x& E3 u! D( G8 p( H' f
- K2 k1 v& g; P# } ^S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
3 ]- S' T1 `1 R: U3 @+ U; m' V% T, u, P% O
! Q- v6 x; ^, |9 z" DS3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
% s, u2 q/ G7 `* H8 s; y3 X6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
% j% v" D- ~+ KS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 ! x' `' b p* _9 W' [
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
1 F8 l6 i# @' e(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o5 @' C5 P4 |& ]: v# d
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \( b. C: }) I1 x# Z E# Z8 o! c
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 ; y) C( H- ^$ @6 k, m A
) q( ], k9 L T& t& B/ S' z% \4 T1 g/ ]9 O& e; h
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
5 M6 }% C3 Q2 }- g+ v7 {( n8 ~+ M1 D) L0 m
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 + _2 ^) u k7 L4 x; h$ z
; ]) Q* G D# x5 h' o" l! Q' Z$ s- Q于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
- u6 Q3 x5 m; b$ m V- G8 j9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
4 O! s$ @* l$ u8 R1 ?G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M3 Q* o; _+ _2 @
+ D$ n) P# X# M. U3 a; M( \1 o$ k5 b% ]
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 1 t I0 y( K/ W4 b; W4 R3 t" a
6 Y8 b. `4 Q s/ E, b. c [
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]# i# ]: m4 C* p% W3 f
- u0 V' a% {2 ]& C
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
3 v# d4 n. |+ `6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
3 @+ e, G$ H$ k) f4 Z通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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