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小分3种情况:
$ B: N9 a: |: B7 a ]; Q$ O5 \* u3 ]5 O
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
. }1 ^/ L$ M9 I/ e' N' l8 `9 A. l0 o O$ K
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。; D& q8 c) U* N
6 ?% \ j( m0 {: v
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。0 [6 ~) O+ L3 v8 g& I
' K; V, x: r* l& p* O* j2张牌8或9点的情况有:2 u# C6 i& [! \$ |* @% t; g# W0 ]
9 f- N ~ C, f4 g0 }1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+105 K: e$ s9 s( Q# w' h
; d Z: Q3 I( h+ R
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415* `0 N7 N& ?) _! V
& t1 b& n: P( l! R2 g% n7 N4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4153 B4 o# V) M! r% Q( {9 j
; c7 ]9 q' \6 Z3 q2 t% Q8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
1 a ^' D$ Y7 {- K) q; W3 H1 z$ z0 `
& R( h" {- R; e7 w' g$ ?由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。' f' [, E2 _$ ?
, F0 I* e6 E9 b" @: z, O7 C- [; b通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。& c) X5 [4 Y3 I+ s
9 Q( _6 C- [; F7 U: T j
那么我们可以得出
; Z) v" t& ?) X$ P" q3 g- f8 t. @& e+ G' p. i/ w$ Y
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662# w6 i& n0 ^3 a: S- U
0 D# ?# n _1 S+ t% Q2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
3 ?6 e, Q& z6 G
4 ]! J5 [- b% c I1 d3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491% S2 r& p d3 y X# O
' `: h0 Q* t8 E0 i& t, J$ r所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.3788693235 m9 L2 L* u0 s. h6 b: E# h5 U
/ R( Y6 I6 e V3 W+ f2 ?1 j百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677/ O8 T+ g" p0 d* G* X& J6 |0 v1 G
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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