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[lastpost] => 2751249 昔日最猛批斗者“叛变”!摩根大通开始探索加密货币业务(转 1753225068 九嶷风
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币,同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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) { Z/ j& p) l' |1 {; O5 |: U6 v) M- ~& g瑞银认为,一旦全球无风险利率出现波动,意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出:“我其实不担心
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衰退,我担心的是金融危机。”* m( v( b8 Q5 l; w- I- A& T+ W& _
美股周五重回涨势,看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复,但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性,尤其是美债的剧烈波动,让金! m: X3 u, Y) S5 \3 C# F
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。, w% `/ P4 R0 r; ?$ ]0 y& {4 [
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过去一周,美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升,美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看,标普500指数周涨超5%,美债收益
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6 [7 O" [% Y/ `% _率回到2月水平,比特币收盘走高,似乎一切如常。( Y; e6 n; `. t+ n8 B
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然而令人不安的是,本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象,正是典型的新兴市场特征,而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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; }- }, t# v, R8 g' @. n6 {- |长债出现如此大的波动,流动性危机似乎就在眼前,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更0 b2 G, n. n) J# _* S2 Q5 ~
9 G5 {- f6 q" T" X3 J$ z- n是表示:
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率,如果全球无风险利率出现波动,它将颠覆所有市场。1 L4 ^% E! F0 `0 s8 @# b
( m& p! q# ]$ w& _9 Z0 o历史罕见,美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币2 d$ g+ c# A; ]2 P1 t) Y" Y
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心,也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史. @2 K1 k) {' t+ M2 g
( F% n5 H7 ~8 T! M' W9 R+ \标准来看,本周都是一个惨烈的交易周,美股像是坐上了过山车,美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了:5 B/ { Z1 i3 @/ [
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周一,因所谓的乌龙关税消息,美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震,纳指一度低位暴拉10%,美债跳水。
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周二,不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望,道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点,标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌,美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三,美国暂缓部分关税,三大美股指至少收涨近8%,标普创2008年来最大涨幅,美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。
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周四,全球投资者逃离美国资产,美国股债汇三杀,纳指跌超4%,美元两年来最大日跌,黄金新高。
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/ H( K) }# s: j. _周五,美联储暗示或出手,美股反弹收涨,但美债美元的跌势,警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。4 e, \1 E! o/ u9 J9 ]" ]
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示:"美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场?毫无疑问,5 ~. J# c( R; C
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是的,这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示,美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金,也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去4 S, H6 C5 J4 v$ M1 D8 G7 p6 L2 O
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外,几乎从未出现。- V9 B/ L7 v2 V0 |6 n0 B
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言:"标普500指数像加密货币一样交易,这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调,但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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