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[lastpost] => 2753098 从沙盒到发牌，一文读懂即将落地的香港稳定币新政（转） 1753925237 万家灯火
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。- f( h6 ]9 R+ C
# M- k6 \# K& a q- g瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心$ k# |" b* v0 r) K9 T) A2 b& R
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
9 e- c2 |. a4 K- V" o- U美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益' O9 @; m; T0 k7 A, [4 c
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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# I0 \: R. L {3 j" r3 i长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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是表示：% @# _; [, ?& F. C
+ H6 u& N9 L0 I) u这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币4 t. \/ q' T; U$ h n2 m% r
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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1 `4 Z" d( t+ @6 B- v: {, F标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。& ~ E$ i# q0 h; y5 O t7 n5 J: c
$ d% @# d7 n- o; y0 b7 @周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。% D9 ~! q% X3 e5 \
! ?; R ?* V* F- C6 S周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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0 g8 x8 E. T! V) U% Y m* [收益率冲高回落。
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7 ~" L9 E% `4 {8 d3 _" [: r周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。- i' m: T; h6 X6 z) ]8 J: k. t$ V5 @' O+ b
1 U; S- m( q2 K1 P+ m' z7 C周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。1 T: Q' c( T* f' l% L1 @1 G$ W
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) M$ g" D0 R- y: ?+ o0 {% P- hLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，0 A, ?9 V ?9 a7 U4 w
0 O+ H( i+ @- p5 [' x& P& g是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去3 r6 x& G g0 i. u
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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