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[lastpost] => 2756811 以太坊国债持续火爆，生物科技股受比特币计划拖累暴跌（转） 1755134419 jackcool1011
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$ q/ d. e b9 B, w+ w: t' {8 T y2 W 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，# g) Y7 Y4 ^( P' p
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于4 i( J+ G4 [4 h4 L
3 h' b2 C; d+ C }# G/ d4 R1 |逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政
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策的确定性。
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3 r2 z0 f. @: D0 g' T 中信证券主要观点如下：6 s7 M8 }. O2 R# w/ a
5 {. m7 E: G* f# x 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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: E. c6 x' g. S3 a+ i 自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。
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近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。7 s( i4 [ I* R% q
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2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现$ } _% j4 W( q9 l5 ]' x2 Y' G
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不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
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& Z p) r* [! d3 d% J+ w. m. x 加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。0 z( ~( q9 a5 K Y0 V5 E
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从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。! y# e9 o6 r: y3 q- i6 F* p1 ?
2 ]% Z1 n0 U9 ~" z. | 加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。; x W4 A5 b3 I) ?# b P
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫0 y+ Q4 ]4 V' b& t
) ^" J+ x( ]3 n3 B& h/ R破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。4 U/ B) y J: L
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短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。$ D/ t( q0 `- [3 ]' p4 Z6 F
' ~- [# ]8 O1 F# G" l 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性3 Z N& E$ y0 w+ k
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共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。) |5 g8 T) `, _6 c
4 H; N6 ?8 a9 B7 X9 z 长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。, F' [. n5 t0 f6 \5 g( [
+ w" s1 y: ]* _! m" z 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣0 S: Z3 S Z. S
8 \* ]! T5 [, f. S/ J ^& B势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。9 J" W: p/ n# o0 i7 ~
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展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。
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本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。0 t) w+ u) [6 ?) u# X' R, D1 d
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风险因素：
$ i+ X7 v8 x1 d# L% r7 f6 Y* P4 A. A# ^4 J& q
特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。2 Z. w" V9 k+ z/ X! h
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