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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。2 x0 S' C) H- S- m$ Q( }# E% n+ @  g

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! G: A# N6 `  q' o, v西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率8 U1 x6 E1 W1 m, w' q# o# T

) v! f# B: e$ S( o. Z6 T以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:( U# C4 t7 d8 J1 O% r

9 O5 b- e$ {0 w2 [  l皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?; @$ @8 a# Z. F; ]) q* d
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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6 a, v  [0 i# c3 S! B以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?! z6 y; M# @& K# U4 W4 u7 _

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盈利可能性% O, K- Z- p; Z0 p$ v5 @9 K* ]

7 v  A  x- t* H: S% }, r对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?. {+ r2 N+ i  d/ r6 n5 ]; h! w

/ b) F  ^3 I  u" n* ~a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 3 e1 C2 o- h9 {( S: T

1 f( }  O3 S5 @, A  W  Q0 n/ _0 K正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
9 Y' P5 s3 _8 F; o6 B60%的机会你会一无所有; J6 T. [* @& ?1 H& N
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
+ m' R3 x7 t7 S0 o由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。( H4 C* o" Y/ N8 H0 W

/ g+ L' k5 @4 T' N6 ]) B* O增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注% x1 W) h7 b2 B- P* e' E

! s. E$ B7 \7 j- a凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)3 O  e! X& `( [# x! L, O
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A=博彩资金) z6 o/ J6 `4 {4 l- P$ o* j
P=获胜机会; O  |8 H$ Q, Q, s0 e
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)4 G% \; t' j: o  T

* z) r& @( o4 F+ G, Z# _4 s首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。" l  Z- k6 }& i+ w& o

; `+ H1 s% a  C# b3 q% w# M- _好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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! t, q: U$ v" i" \. g3 q1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)$ i7 {2 L* n* k. |
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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5 A8 k( [& g/ m8 sA=06 y' P6 c9 B( I1 n; U( j
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢  i8 f" y" s% Y$ F

( d9 J! B/ t  ~& n7 C2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)) T1 t  N2 Q7 |# K4 V

( @' b& F6 g' kA=0.12 ]$ n; l8 X% g

3 ~( ~% O- z! _" u+ L- w6 }结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去. U% Q- \. P% t& a* S* {

3 j/ }& ~: j5 K3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)3 }- n4 @+ n8 D$ G$ \& w6 {

) u8 |6 }* }6 I. ]0 {$ VA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2
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  ^+ E. ~9 c1 J+ U结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好) w( F2 M9 v3 i. m% G: ^8 O
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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