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[虚拟币交流]
Peter Schiff：比特币现货ETF获准可能对币价产生灾难性影响（4日转）
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尽管市场对美国当局可能批准第一档比特币现货ETF充满期待，知名比特币怀疑论者、- L/ [& y2 P8 }: a4 N" k
提倡拥抱黄金的Peter Schiff警告，比特币狂热人士要小心不要抱持过多期望。* H3 g" V; ?( J0 ?' G- a0 w4 `( ?1 l/ o
Peter Schiff在社群平台X上贴文表示，比特币现货ETF获准可能对比特币价格产生灾难性影响。他说，关于美国上
7 x& u- h3 q4 p, s( k市推出比特币现货ETF的展望，已经支撑了比特币的价格和投机性需求长达数年。这代表，如果预料中的机构投资
9 w. X2 ]% k5 u需求没有来临，就算ETF获得核准上市，比特币价格也会暴跌，「当心冲击！」
7 y4 W/ ]$ s/ l& p# PPeter Schiff长期来一直对比特币持怀疑态度，而且多年来持续预测比特币会灭亡，然而比特币每轮周期的表现都
" K2 s Q0 v2 T" k/ v证明他是错的。他的推文收到比特币支持者的大量留言，这些支持人士提醒他，正如黄金ETF并没有减损实体黄金3 J& C# H1 g( Z( ~) I" u3 p+ E
的需求一样，如果出现比特币现货ETF，只会为比特币市场增添动能。8 O; ]3 T9 [1 C% k- Z/ I- W( X
然而，搜集许多数据的顾问业者Matrixport也提醒说，比特币支持人士可能必须再等更久的时间，才能见到首档0 Z, d, ]% }, [, `. R
比特币现货ETF在美国上市。该公司预测，美国证管会(SEC)可能会在1月10日的最终期限否决所有比特币现货ETF
7 Z6 o8 l' p# f$ g3 P的申请。& }4 j9 L; i- a& U' h5 K; B5 _' p
Matrixport的最新预测和许多ETF分析师先前的预测截然相反，一些分析师预期这些申请案有90%的机率会在1月
$ z* E/ d8 z" s# Z! N6 s10日的最终期限前闯关成功。不过，Matrixport表示，尽管ETF申请者频繁与SEC的工作人员开会，但「所有申请
4 T6 ^6 E! X1 o8 ^2 Y案都没有达到能获得SEC核准前必须达到的关键要求。」Matrixport表示，预期在2024年的第2季前，都不会见
+ X9 k" k# O! t1 y# o/ a! Q6 R2 w# d到有任何一档比特币现货ETF获准上市。
0 P1 V. `- z) q" H |该公司的分析指出，目前在SEC的五人投票委员小组中，包括SEC主席Gary Gensler在内的民主党人占了多数地1 O( ?; J. M5 b% \! q! K$ J1 z
位，因此不太可能投票通过核准比特币现货ETF。
" M) L' I* v6 [许多报告援引匿名消息人士预测，第一档比特币现货ETF会在1月2日前获得核准，然而这并没有发生。随着SEC在
3 j$ ] U0 r! ^& n1 Z D g2 L, ]( k; S1月10日做出决定的最后期限逼近，市场的乐观情绪正转变为怀疑，证据包括加密货币挖矿公司的股价走软，而且
! H: ?, }. U' ^) d" b; M& F几档与比特币相关的美国股票卖压涌现。此外，比特币在1月3日盘中一度大跌9%。6 W. v& l4 I; _6 |
彭博社ETF分析师Eric Balchunas先前一直看好比特币现货ETF有99%的机率会在2024年第1季获准上市，现在他! ^: a4 J3 l- T& @) z2 j4 p- R5 F
相信，SEC仍有「些许」机会可能拒绝比特币现货ETF的申请案。
$ ]& I1 D/ H; s1 h& e
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产生灾难性影响的是要看啊: ^/ [. e* F: ?# e3 M( K T
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