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[虚拟币交流]
Peter Schiff：比特币现货ETF获准可能对币价产生灾难性影响（4日转）
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7 O) @, g' B7 w) I" Z# u, c) u4 r1 }
尽管市场对美国当局可能批准第一档比特币现货ETF充满期待，知名比特币怀疑论者、
6 }5 U. e- c5 |. a5 |* a提倡拥抱黄金的Peter Schiff警告，比特币狂热人士要小心不要抱持过多期望。1 V }3 ^& E, Z$ A
Peter Schiff在社群平台X上贴文表示，比特币现货ETF获准可能对比特币价格产生灾难性影响。他说，关于美国上( R0 G) ?8 w7 B, h5 i6 [. j% M
市推出比特币现货ETF的展望，已经支撑了比特币的价格和投机性需求长达数年。这代表，如果预料中的机构投资, L7 d7 _) D# ]/ |2 Q
需求没有来临，就算ETF获得核准上市，比特币价格也会暴跌，「当心冲击！」
! l" n8 N8 n2 m7 I/ e5 PPeter Schiff长期来一直对比特币持怀疑态度，而且多年来持续预测比特币会灭亡，然而比特币每轮周期的表现都
$ ~& P* a: V$ [8 A! {: Z. U+ ?4 T证明他是错的。他的推文收到比特币支持者的大量留言，这些支持人士提醒他，正如黄金ETF并没有减损实体黄金% m) `% a5 l6 R4 K8 B8 M
的需求一样，如果出现比特币现货ETF，只会为比特币市场增添动能。* z( h* K& x! e' Y/ K s- q3 ]; H7 L5 {
然而，搜集许多数据的顾问业者Matrixport也提醒说，比特币支持人士可能必须再等更久的时间，才能见到首档
2 e; P; ?$ t+ K比特币现货ETF在美国上市。该公司预测，美国证管会(SEC)可能会在1月10日的最终期限否决所有比特币现货ETF
" I. b4 [3 `; ~6 o7 h$ B. z& f; h6 q M的申请。- \' `& i5 @3 U9 r* R
Matrixport的最新预测和许多ETF分析师先前的预测截然相反，一些分析师预期这些申请案有90%的机率会在1月5 a5 Y8 i4 Q8 O: Y2 i9 w
10日的最终期限前闯关成功。不过，Matrixport表示，尽管ETF申请者频繁与SEC的工作人员开会，但「所有申请
r: W3 |, O y案都没有达到能获得SEC核准前必须达到的关键要求。」Matrixport表示，预期在2024年的第2季前，都不会见- Z2 v2 U: o# W) w2 s
到有任何一档比特币现货ETF获准上市。
) h7 L1 X% y$ D& @) x3 x( s该公司的分析指出，目前在SEC的五人投票委员小组中，包括SEC主席Gary Gensler在内的民主党人占了多数地
# W- F; Y" W4 `& P) o. ?位，因此不太可能投票通过核准比特币现货ETF。& d2 n1 b% F: y; Q- B# S% H& N
许多报告援引匿名消息人士预测，第一档比特币现货ETF会在1月2日前获得核准，然而这并没有发生。随着SEC在
% _+ M) Y7 m0 i3 _: m6 M1月10日做出决定的最后期限逼近，市场的乐观情绪正转变为怀疑，证据包括加密货币挖矿公司的股价走软，而且+ f6 G5 E& w7 o6 h
几档与比特币相关的美国股票卖压涌现。此外，比特币在1月3日盘中一度大跌9%。
$ j) }% G" a! x( v. a彭博社ETF分析师Eric Balchunas先前一直看好比特币现货ETF有99%的机率会在2024年第1季获准上市，现在他
* M: h1 z4 F' V' _7 S1 q相信，SEC仍有「些许」机会可能拒绝比特币现货ETF的申请案。
* I1 q2 d# q# p; V9 C8 ]
3 c( L; b0 i4 F; v2 B! \" M' C7 G' c4 K0 J& Q8 z( }5 @
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产生灾难性影响的是要看啊
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