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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
7 p; z% d% m6 q- }3 w$ }1 T6 j) P: d$ p) P0 t% y
$ v0 J* D4 J0 }+ n1 _% a0 r5 [西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
, |" W1 e5 h: q8 L- p
& Y2 \& W& W* {' ]以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
4 U+ q! |- F4 r( t, w |. r4 G( z7 Q( a" O$ J
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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! q, k6 S% O# C2 Z很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
o/ u& P$ s+ m8 P: ^/ J+ a5 b+ e& `% U7 ?
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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8 Q9 f H, F7 S/ |: q( d以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性5 M1 q3 q6 T9 I( g7 e* \
! W m ]* |) g v0 }8 b, L对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。4 ~0 E# ]2 r `: @
. m3 y. p3 {4 @增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。) O6 J7 ?# a1 y6 H
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?+ \8 [# n0 z/ Z9 |5 J
2 q) P) T; f- ]2 p+ {a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 6 s9 \# ^: `' t5 h
" c' a0 o! O E, ]
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么, g9 b# U1 L. R: t. j
: R& \4 S% b. k+ P- r1 q40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
* G" [5 X$ L: M# s6 k60%的机会你会一无所有
+ F- h# {, {# x7 d6 l预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
o6 o9 v0 O2 A2 n* p! z由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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" M' K6 w- n7 w增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。" L9 Y0 w1 [9 q2 I; e; [
+ \/ W, s1 k+ k1 O" ~基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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$ @$ p0 |$ X! _5 ]0 M公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金1 g5 y8 z: d& ~/ N) o; J9 ?
P=获胜机会/ @, L3 Q0 }. e
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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6 z) }' W+ W4 W1 b+ O% U6 M9 b1 K首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。! a' T% P" y* @2 t" n
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。( K% P: T; L8 X# s
2 J# o O: [9 C! F/ G1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)4 B" N5 _; H7 h5 E! M3 `
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
+ q3 Z$ f( c1 {9 j, e' s7 {+ |) m/ I% ]
结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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% w0 {; l" {/ w0 C; u# L# _ T2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)& n1 G$ d# F9 Q+ n; N' I7 @
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1 ~& g. J0 s e" |# l8 h3 c) S
8 q! T" O9 }% [, \. ^2 p
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去3 f: Y( u8 Z4 U: y/ L6 z0 k
j' m G. {' ?( j. j" J2 r' w1 o& h4 }3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)* i. }$ ]: l" I/ `$ U! N
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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& z0 d. U, r; _% v" e7 g! qA= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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* s! @9 J8 X) @' S第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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