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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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5 Y: `; m, _8 O( Y! l以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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. R$ \2 E2 G, R" {皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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  ?' a/ `& P1 V# Q& v很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)- `' x& J5 e1 E- B# F* l
! O& [  T% ^8 d2 V! e
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性/ }) T" i) i  f# M( Q$ J" R7 x
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。5 s) Z/ H% G4 r, t; E( x
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。; }. U3 m2 B4 W1 ^& p2 h& P0 B

5 p+ e0 y8 h1 N; m% s9 H你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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+ l  e  _  H% }! ua) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 2 i4 X0 A- S0 l

$ Z* Y' e2 w5 S8 X. B9 X正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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7 ?" i) w5 |7 I1 L: G* \7 v* u. x5 l40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
$ ~# ?4 u! F+ z  V# O60%的机会你会一无所有
2 K* @& e/ S" c9 W8 l, f3 h. D9 ^预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
* M$ n" Y6 ^' I. G8 l由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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3 Y! @. P! e% R9 j7 W2 z基于增值的投注" r" o& Z+ r% V
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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( ]  {# v) n, {# q公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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' @, y0 E9 p% A" w" ?2 t" HA=博彩资金
) j& J' k+ q- s7 @- ~P=获胜机会: W( I+ B# l8 t8 M
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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/ J8 S/ }& Z8 t- k$ V好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。4 w4 [3 B1 ^, w1 s8 q1 v& C

+ ]* I# u* X; m5 m1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)1 K7 _9 r$ u. n) ~
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)5 M$ t* h& Y7 [/ N0 `1 |) m" T

: D9 o3 P$ W) r9 g8 V$ r9 a! w  L$ ZA=0, h- u2 \7 F6 C& t3 Z" o
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)+ m3 {5 l+ A9 q( Y8 n

3 a8 u6 b  L% |+ LA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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1 o( \2 W. b  ~# m& ]A=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去: N, c: a* S- i0 Z9 G, J: b
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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# E- o" ?4 M/ h$ K  w2 CA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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8 O- @5 y+ p. tA= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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/ F( N/ y) Z- R9 y第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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