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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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0 l) ]0 K0 W: h4 K# b9 M# y$ h) v) ]开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/725 H$ M: l: i) i2 K7 e

+ u  P( d* o, o8 J2 X- s开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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& {3 H3 G4 f0 [+ [收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5! B6 L" h6 s1 ]' @. V) R: q

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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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8 T5 X" Y9 G; p3 D加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;$ v2 u+ q! T+ |4 w0 a) B8 U  b' x
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以上,76gor
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;4 {% O! w4 L0 [* l

0 H& J% t5 f% ]2 M( t1 [1 d; S假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000  A3 u! H" u( i& a$ ]$ I6 H
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥5005 I, ~, K  |& Z6 y# d" L

& v) O$ f( z+ x6 J6 h* c& y7 F每天净收入为:¥652
$ u2 G+ Q' j& m2 R" @/ p6 ~6 [4 B1 ?1 q. k
年收入为:¥237,980
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2 g3 h! I5 y& C1 D/ f1 j' j唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;+ i6 n- |; u& x& H( d3 _& S
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;8 |" k6 Y8 n) k3 p/ M
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回复 2# 76gor $ E9 H2 a' z$ |# ~2 D  m
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$ p& T5 f* ?/ I7 T9 x7 o   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?
) D' F: s# Y2 ^7 {4 _/ |Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
  p  U: C0 q2 _8 l4 @6 u( Pbeata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
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    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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5 t0 @& R7 e9 T0 @: @8 F4 H5 v假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:$ v, T( h1 e( G, ~

7 [  F" t, k( ^5 g: n2 Q: q1 K# t, D开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
! G; y; I$ I* p9 L76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
* Y) X3 ?. F( T( g8 F, R3 a+ d大概是1%多点
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: c# O- E3 e( D) v  l& V至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...2 J7 _+ e* S3 U0 Y2 l* r
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27
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    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
$ e( y+ v, {" w) _" J9 q粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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& P8 D  P4 R, I+ Q! k0 @    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor & j5 {  E4 U9 C# n
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor # C3 I% }: D+ T! G

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* ?8 Z! K4 G1 `0 b   有个风险就是豹子吧!
. ?* n0 N8 o' U! a粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

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    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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