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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 ! J6 \# `5 q& i- k0 `- N: h, F
% R; R: \8 E- E3 O% l其实原文标题不是这样的% M* u! b5 t8 _
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!# B$ N/ B! ]+ B! d! {+ B
+ \1 j: H+ h! B
# {9 G" N* r5 U! \
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
! I. W" R" ]) J0 S L他希望能和上帝来场赌局。 J# y0 Q4 X2 u8 @$ U$ j
& _# C. R& m3 K9 K$ z
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。: N( j* h0 s* N1 J7 p- g7 w
# \7 z- T+ `, W1 U
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
' \; c- Z1 R, R; V$ m3 ~ u W. }- ~, ^8 B
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 - u# h) S; ?! ?
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
# K1 @7 S# y3 ]( F6 ^4 i2 m
+ q+ @8 @& s9 T' i- m( \ 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
+ c( v1 @* @5 \7 Y
$ \7 w. ~, k: n/ n, ^接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，. P( h5 h7 |3 }$ T
因此铜板较容易出现正面。
4 k( j4 |1 ?. K长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
$ w2 p' V. @2 q R& f1 N因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。, _- P: b: @% ?( u
心想赢定了。
! Y$ Q9 y. W0 Z- c
1 V: P% O; S# b2 H( t+ V* _6 l没想到开始不到半刻钟，/ v: S1 f3 K$ J" I& ^) ]2 _
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」$ F0 e% r+ g8 Z E# ?! @ b
. A) b: J# I# |1 y赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，8 b: e/ l7 _# L) q9 }, N
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
% l1 h2 p3 V5 k% `1 }* O" x
# c' ?9 |; u" Z! g& @2 t) k赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
4 _% U+ X1 N. K! W/ y' a; Q他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
# G8 @* x. `4 {9 r8 w T1 M4 n( `) @
上帝回答道：
, p+ [: ]( f( W( k6 i* s「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」/ v( i7 G+ r8 Q3 @6 ~4 @
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
' G, [# Y) S, h3 x$ b「而不是先发生在我身上。」
' g7 ?5 L0 }+ ^- Z% g! v/ e7 i& E) A& @# n4 o* `5 d
赌徒恍然大悟，
) s4 T3 e5 E' L7 J原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，2 ]$ _' m. K1 z8 Y7 [7 o% ]
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！3 ?6 k, j ]3 z9 _
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
B; s9 g8 g3 _% v上帝说完便不见踪影。 @, T1 e3 Y6 `6 E% R
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
. h# v8 P' x- }# R( s$ I; ^7 ^若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，4 k, X( v: D4 P" j9 r6 \
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，/ x/ h1 p$ n+ R' M$ [
对赌徒十分有利。& A: N' x, @2 [( w D' q! z
3 b+ h1 [+ N# A6 O6 J2 |但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
2 H2 u" n: `1 Z0 c7 D: S, j在还没掷到1000次之前，
& c7 k0 e: q# j: A7 F仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。1 ~6 [9 n* O. G" ?8 a
, H& ]- v5 v |" B 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
2 v# L1 P9 s! w7 P
% j4 m8 S5 O4 D# b5 ^' P; P/ D 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
7 N% w4 {1 T" D0 M. d2 Y1 M% [# P) X+ o2 o. f; o! D. U
市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
: F5 N2 R5 K/ w6 V0 G4 |
8 K4 u3 z& C, j# ]: P | 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 4 F# V% X8 ]) d
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