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[lastpost] => 2752635 Solana 创办人称迷因币与 NFT 是「数字垃圾」:被打脸一边赚一边骂... 1753885760 AOU1888
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币,同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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; h, l: z) W9 |3 k2 n* n) Z瑞银认为,一旦全球无风险利率出现波动,意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出:“我其实不担心
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! ~+ G% X+ v' h( O) c9 o衰退,我担心的是金融危机。”
! U$ \# b8 w! j7 g V- Q5 v美股周五重回涨势,看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复,但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性,尤其是美债的剧烈波动,让金1 x% l5 I+ r" L1 u; E1 B
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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, c; L4 Y0 u8 k3 q过去一周,美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升,美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看,标普500指数周涨超5%,美债收益
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率回到2月水平,比特币收盘走高,似乎一切如常。 }' B+ t& ~% I, H8 }2 D
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然而令人不安的是,本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象,正是典型的新兴市场特征,而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动,流动性危机似乎就在眼前,这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更1 y7 {; {0 T% f' t1 t- R
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是表示:
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- j+ l7 k: G w$ f! j这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率,如果全球无风险利率出现波动,它将颠覆所有市场。/ j& r7 G2 Y2 {% t
& U0 e/ B+ {% n+ ?) v' ~! |历史罕见,美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心,也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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( a7 B, J/ G7 m标准来看,本周都是一个惨烈的交易周,美股像是坐上了过山车,美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了:
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3 e- E+ Y6 X* w% W8 K2 N; S周一,因所谓的乌龙关税消息,美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震,纳指一度低位暴拉10%,美债跳水。* t! C# [& {& y( B, r( ^5 K
! d2 C- m5 P4 r# N7 o周二,不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望,道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点,标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌,美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。/ v6 t2 c2 p- B2 [. I- D
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周三,美国暂缓部分关税,三大美股指至少收涨近8%,标普创2008年来最大涨幅,美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。
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" [8 S3 O* N% @周四,全球投资者逃离美国资产,美国股债汇三杀,纳指跌超4%,美元两年来最大日跌,黄金新高。
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' H( U* k1 J4 ~周五,美联储暗示或出手,美股反弹收涨,但美债美元的跌势,警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示:"美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场?毫无疑问,
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0 h. C, v5 q8 _& g* q是的,这正是我们所看到的。"; a# x( e* l% J& ^) o
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根据数据显示,美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金,也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外,几乎从未出现。
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% d) ]' d. g8 M8 j, d b- P) o3 X/ YRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言:"标普500指数像加密货币一样交易,这可能不是好事。") \* B1 L/ M. _$ u! v; n8 T* T# r+ g
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调,但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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