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[lastpost] => 2752635 Solana 创办人称迷因币与 NFT 是「数字垃圾」：被打脸一边赚一边骂... 1753885760 AOU1888
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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; h, l: z) W9 |3 k2 n* n) Z瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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! ~+ G% X+ v' h( O) c9 o衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
! U$ \# b8 w! j7 g V- Q5 v美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金1 x% l5 I+ r" L1 u; E1 B
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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, c; L4 Y0 u8 k3 q过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。 }' B+ t& ~% I, H8 }2 D
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更1 y7 {; {0 T% f' t1 t- R
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是表示：
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- j+ l7 k: G w$ f! j这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。/ j& r7 G2 Y2 {% t
& U0 e/ B+ {% n+ ?) v' ~! |历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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( a7 B, J/ G7 m标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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3 e- E+ Y6 X* w% W8 K2 N; S周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。* t! C# [& {& y( B, r( ^5 K
! d2 C- m5 P4 r# N7 o周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。/ v6 t2 c2 p- B2 [. I- D
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。
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" [8 S3 O* N% @周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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' H( U* k1 J4 ~周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
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0 h. C, v5 q8 _& g* q是的，这正是我们所看到的。"; a# x( e* l% J& ^) o
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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% d) ]' d. g8 M8 j, d b- P) o3 X/ YRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。") \* B1 L/ M. _$ u! v; n8 T* T# r+ g
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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