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[lastpost] => 2751619 两年来首次，以太坊交易资金超过比特币（转） 1753334544 22301
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。1 K7 b; d2 j! t
U8 ~9 t6 F, ]2 w2 c瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
$ h% H- M) y: t7 v美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。0 @$ Z& R% J$ \( }4 x2 X
1 [+ W9 N, c8 \" k* u1 W过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益0 p! g7 u/ V( j2 M1 g) t
; o: J3 }# W* x8 J) U1 K, e率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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: |/ l5 H$ j% N. g) U是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。) ~$ F- C% ]% N- J3 s7 |% L1 e
# p% ^3 E- {% r6 ]/ _历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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( _+ k& A8 X. O( Q# e特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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% r Q5 A8 c: k, }" q标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：8 ]# R) x! r, A. V, G p
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。) T7 f6 w5 z4 D" I; p4 S& q: u, H
5 k* [1 V9 e' Q' k9 F周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债/ B& S4 p: q9 @9 [" ?: v
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收益率冲高回落。4 ~# ^7 X( a0 N( l' ?; y
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。/ A& @ T& P! v+ a" ~! m9 c0 j% p
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周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。2 N+ T! H1 v5 D0 f9 I
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: |% X' c Q0 _Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，) d1 i. x' w K+ I C
$ |3 m% A+ \" q/ t3 g) ` m是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"! ^1 C; X( k, t }* ~5 i& S
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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