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[lastpost] => 2758068 比特币情绪“喜忧参半”，Qubic 瞄准狗狗币等等——加密货币为何下跌！（转） 1755571597 小钱儿
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。+ N" N, L2 l; y: g5 S4 V: N+ r
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”" d: f1 k, v- `, I' F6 \2 u
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金5 ^- I s* d2 S: y' P0 m: X! {
3 n) `/ o# b6 }. F) ^' T融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。' a" z8 g9 h4 ]+ I) W: T7 ]' ^
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益% X: i }1 d: k% W
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。2 g" \ R: ^2 C, y
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国) i) H4 W( [- e8 a2 F
; M8 e# g O9 o: Y0 d& Y' m长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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' A( |) ~9 Y: N, e是表示： w% U5 x3 }! y1 \0 H' ?$ p& Q4 w
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。( _+ {" s5 A6 \3 t4 n9 c: m0 W5 Q
Q/ C: B% [4 M" x/ |: i历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史* z1 k8 d; ~# W" |3 b5 c
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：3 A$ f J/ x# Q9 a
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。6 {7 K$ k8 C& O8 ?) t* a
9 U/ y2 w9 D- R+ n# n% a周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。1 d' v) L# B' r$ h" p3 r
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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1 p. \, k+ f8 V5 ?收益率冲高回落。+ Z+ N2 k( v1 A9 A3 h
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。; [0 q4 ^2 M5 U0 H* k7 n
M6 d1 ^! e% E% e周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。. W5 p! O4 c, D; r. H# g8 v" a
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，. J7 F0 e" V8 d
& x) Y3 ~$ F. c5 u0 l4 R" |是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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, i4 U2 @! s1 ]" c9 y" S根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去" u# r8 j$ w' D: R r
; k0 a( w9 E" F8 O2 n年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。
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) I* p& g4 u/ y, @" Y% H! `Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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