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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。% C; B! m g r( d( X6 k
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
% { w7 u, |* S7 k# G8 n/ i
% J3 {' j. d8 s答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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; }" I5 x3 e4 r盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。$ y: ~) Q; t) z. ~+ O6 [4 B8 h) i
- m- m/ D3 O! x2 ?. G. @ K增值
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5 N( k$ C- H1 R许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
( ` }; N* ^, ?. h/ x; a3 E5 A* M) w9 {
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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1 g7 g7 ~) }5 K2 r0 I2 g! C9 ra) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 6 k# K7 @3 l: r. I- ^( r6 c
/ N3 S8 X/ `1 V! D& ]+ ?4 ?4 m正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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+ }! `8 v; S3 j' G+ e8 ^40%的机会你会收到150元的利润7 ?5 h/ J: _8 n; ^8 ]' P, a+ p
60%的机会你会一无所有
+ _) M+ X: E8 ]7 n* v4 g" u预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
2 X! U, E0 w) m) F) I/ Q由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。7 \2 m; [( z5 S3 x5 V7 M
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。- B0 r9 X, J( M i& {
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。1 E& ^9 O# H! k; R$ |8 F
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)/ C! }/ Q0 n- B; R
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A=博彩资金4 y8 R7 F8 i& \; J- l" v) H% H$ [+ f
P=获胜机会
: P! K6 K2 q' w& J' }% A2 BO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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: x3 v: M5 o8 ^7 b首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)) a9 p- {( K. W
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A=0* h7 [3 c( l k
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢* h ~& R7 B4 ^& U/ e
/ N8 v) r5 z7 s2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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8 e1 z' H: l% G, L+ I, a* @ g. mA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)% A6 l `" U; \3 d
+ |7 Q- n5 y8 D" t& p
A=0.1" b) h- i- B1 q% j* @) }( Q
Y! `$ n+ L7 p! C/ ?! j5 _6 q结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
1 u6 c1 ]3 Z, l
' P+ E9 `2 ~1 O& m. \5 l' ]; h* E3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 / x$ b/ W; M1 B) s9 ~
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
6 w/ O6 _ X- H: X0 ?$ Y$ H& K, x1 m! ?6 U- f6 F
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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