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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。8 W+ {7 K+ X3 N0 d2 V9 r4 X; J% q* r
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; [4 Q9 ^- a3 g9 c西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率' W/ f( M( x! ]) @' p; K+ J# u
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?) i3 X- U8 B/ W, c7 q. I

1 ]4 \$ N  n- _3 G. u答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)1 j7 S5 I2 o, C2 u1 _
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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: @. {$ a- O% O( a' z: U- p$ m对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。7 u- n- N7 b2 @% I+ Q

6 Y: P' [. d  i5 z, U8 c增值, l1 `& ]( A: \! U3 Q0 V
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。! b6 T' Z$ L' k  S, d  E! o
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?# G5 g, c5 x7 _; z! Z9 f- W

4 _& p; W* v( a# Q9 L6 ua) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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+ x. R3 i& L4 ~; q. C) n/ M" f40%的机会你会收到150元的利润5 @+ S! ~# k5 k# e8 z& n
60%的机会你会一无所有% L/ d0 z7 C& |' v! a! b
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
; u. x8 Q; z  _" [9 \0 I由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。, A( }4 O# B- G& b  D

+ Q" Q0 M/ H% z% F& ]增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注* J( }% T- g( T; ]" H' v3 w
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。+ ]1 G8 e8 ^* p+ h, P

  M* S( d! o/ t- M9 ^公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
9 n4 ?' p! l" p/ K. wP=获胜机会
9 E% p1 M" p( `4 K4 I+ [: Q2 yO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)7 ^4 d0 |# d4 T5 a- I* ^( y
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。3 l; D  S% m8 R2 _2 E

" T( i+ s4 u8 J/ Y/ P% U6 o好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。( C. I; T4 O1 e! M
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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+ n% j' Y7 w8 d0 E: nA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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+ o" M6 r$ @+ g) p+ g$ B. RA=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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* J8 b2 ?- e( S0 e7 m8 _2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3), h% m/ S+ M" o: Y" H6 u9 N% z6 X

" ^/ A$ X5 i) dA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)8 @, ~% w) \5 x  O0 B: r5 q
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A=0.12 @% G8 a, {! l6 E! w* R

# Y4 r5 I: D$ I) V2 G结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)1 t# n4 n# Y% r$ ]
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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6 ?- K4 r* r/ k2 ?A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好9 z6 ]0 _, a& [: j. \
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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