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[lastpost] => 2652625 以太坊现货ETF的里程碑（转） 1716771275 22301
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历史长河的逆流，正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。
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9 d) C9 q( B) ?" W6 ~6 j2 a许多朋友很不理解，为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4，不仅多数大宗价, r+ D1 U( m5 h. O9 k
0 [, ?0 k* z1 }- Y3 n7 D# O格在上涨，而且，类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速7 i. Z& ^3 p6 q+ `) L/ j
" z+ [/ J. D! |9 Q5 }& I% B5 |( d猛涨（黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%，比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%）？5 [# a) t0 ^' I- W! F
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对此进行回答，之于事后解释，机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。
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( r3 C) d" }. R, h7 x! f {4 C这样的答案，错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑，逻辑主次不分。
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比如美联储预期要降息这一解释，要知道，从2022年3月美联储启动疯7 Y& M \# B+ J/ p, s7 C& q
4 O* M r0 D- b9 v狂加息至今，美联储的事实降息一次也没有，明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加8 S- I) Z& B/ Z" T% o
: `2 Z* d- r1 U4 _了525多个基点——但是，在这一疯狂加息的区间，从2022年3月开始，
9 B# g3 j( o0 S4 G. d5 S s) W' x/ `& L" I# a h
黄金价格是大幅上涨的，比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。
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当然，近期中东危机的升级信号，这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉; t( Q0 f9 j2 P
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升，但这事实依然无法解释，为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超+ F3 _1 n( `7 g
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高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。5 C7 H) G3 ]/ h% W$ G& e) G* J
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回答这一切，追溯这一切的逻辑源起，必须进行宏观升维，必须将其置
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R5 k, |' B: r于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资 ^* v# p- t! ?& B2 L- B! e
6 d. D, t8 P$ l& c, H6 j3 T产价格走势的研判逻辑源起，这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著
2 P& H2 M: c4 _: c6 n1 B/ z# r, `2 A$ ~
跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。) A# p1 u2 k( u
8 V. ^8 u7 B% `% k7 b之于大历史周期，过去两年，全球化共识在加速撕裂，且这一加速撕裂之
9 w6 D3 g C" `/ Z( m1 |3 f. o/ g% ^, Z# h; q- H8 D1 k2 k: ~
于中长期，本质是不可逆的（当然，不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性）。
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而之于逻辑派生，全球化共识的加速撕裂，必然会派生出全球货币共识的加. W' n) q2 l: T1 Y: }6 ~
3 w# y- Y: J, o. d! w) ]( v/ w速崩裂，尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。
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5 b Q- n( Z* E8 d* H/ a/ k: F确认中美货币正在加速撕裂，除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外（与
9 ?7 P1 ?5 J0 a7 f3 K
0 J1 k9 E+ A1 t& Q" s2 l9 n全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算），还有更重要的维度，且这一更重
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- z6 E& B$ ?% _! G3 q: b* |要的维度，事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。2 M$ }0 T, o/ Q" `3 G" k
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