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[lastpost] => 2652588 2024年5月20日,比特币第二层开发团队BEVM发布了题为“Taproot共识(转) 1716740618 小梦
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历史长河的逆流,正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。
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$ [, T. ^: M; M$ p' r许多朋友很不理解,为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4,不仅多数大宗价- J# C: J/ c+ a+ l& E+ X
" R+ ]) ~$ d8 f) Q J8 L6 p5 L
格在上涨,而且,类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速
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猛涨(黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%,比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%)?- `$ A6 O ]" \( m0 v5 T9 d
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对此进行回答,之于事后解释,机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。: {4 K) H7 w) @2 }5 d
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这样的答案,错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑,逻辑主次不分。7 d4 P# R) T1 L- g( C
* O% `1 u) @. q) J) L& Q
比如美联储预期要降息这一解释,要知道,从2022年3月美联储启动疯* C& `; }% s! i( a. y
. n1 H; W4 v9 g+ q) j狂加息至今,美联储的事实降息一次也没有,明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加
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/ [. `6 P0 J0 c2 v了525多个基点——但是,在这一疯狂加息的区间,从2022年3月开始,
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黄金价格是大幅上涨的,比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。
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; N3 W. S1 p. L0 p当然,近期中东危机的升级信号,这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉
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0 X" s! {; S/ s1 |* ^% u1 V7 K升,但这事实依然无法解释,为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超
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高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。) J' C5 ]$ r3 E9 W5 }- R$ F/ }$ B
! b/ g! E, e; Z( d回答这一切,追溯这一切的逻辑源起,必须进行宏观升维,必须将其置
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于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资6 ^5 `# y; J% Q' g0 t& N
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产价格走势的研判逻辑源起,这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著
) ~4 z5 r8 d* I9 i& d6 |- \7 n2 K1 B9 Z3 h9 X
跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。
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1 N2 ?7 R6 H' b8 X3 F5 V之于大历史周期,过去两年,全球化共识在加速撕裂,且这一加速撕裂之
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于中长期,本质是不可逆的(当然,不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性)。' U. B k- [3 f4 D! c& ?' a9 G
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而之于逻辑派生,全球化共识的加速撕裂,必然会派生出全球货币共识的加
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" H2 I( j" @2 \4 b; H i速崩裂,尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。 d3 `5 Z" O- t+ C2 ?4 z2 ?! i
# o, O; a3 l7 L e确认中美货币正在加速撕裂,除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外(与- ?" [ H+ Q6 E4 V
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全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算),还有更重要的维度,且这一更重
) g b$ h& _2 s" v5 Z+ b# C8 c' W% M9 D$ G( _7 z8 c
要的维度,事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。
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