×
Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯,数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 20035
[posts] => 289068
[todayposts] => 95
[yesterdayposts] => 359
[rank] => 2
[oldrank] => 3
[lastpost] => 2652571 Shiba Inu是否会反弹至0.0000259美元以上?SHIB的状态(转) 1716717683 mattf
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12079 小时
本月在线: 36 小时
|
|
历史长河的逆流,正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。
( f- L9 X j- n( G
3 Y2 y1 a3 @7 V许多朋友很不理解,为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4,不仅多数大宗价
5 ]7 D. q* m- [8 L
* k; @) Y% ~0 g0 [- d3 e格在上涨,而且,类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速, W' h, o d. t
5 ^0 I" m" I( @1 U v9 \' f猛涨(黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%,比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%)? o! c. e9 T1 S
. G: _2 h7 q4 K% S& P" h4 L
对此进行回答,之于事后解释,机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。
2 f+ j. v3 L* H, s- c0 e V
* d% }: |9 c1 D: @4 L$ M3 g- t( d这样的答案,错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑,逻辑主次不分。
$ ?# y d+ Z5 {! H: {
% ~" q/ ]1 C: F! G. W7 I比如美联储预期要降息这一解释,要知道,从2022年3月美联储启动疯
: {6 Q, n* o" I, ]) s7 X. a3 k* h, l( G; q0 p- G
狂加息至今,美联储的事实降息一次也没有,明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加/ K3 s9 P( r: i; k/ [ [
4 T- d7 u5 [; u x% V! U& ~了525多个基点——但是,在这一疯狂加息的区间,从2022年3月开始,
4 t$ p3 |3 U) ~- ^) d9 G8 y
. S# u8 R0 j! J2 w" ~0 j9 E黄金价格是大幅上涨的,比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。) z) C( n5 u5 m" {" \* ]
' X' }% D: S) p. u, U# J1 D
当然,近期中东危机的升级信号,这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉- q4 C: K1 I$ r! q
* o. `" B3 u! J- {' a
升,但这事实依然无法解释,为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超
% Z: m' m3 U( w7 N+ L) U
/ F5 R! T4 a3 C+ s! F5 L# Y高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。
# K! c4 {, T+ H) J% M/ ?3 c7 ~. e( D0 z( V+ O* q/ a: v6 Q; O
回答这一切,追溯这一切的逻辑源起,必须进行宏观升维,必须将其置
' K0 q/ U& O4 }& Y3 }" F8 f! r% Y% a% U& v% ~8 f! o
于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资
! n' d# h8 O6 t' e6 c
5 q' V. _) g' b' k" h; J* M6 _% }* I4 l产价格走势的研判逻辑源起,这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著) f" [) O" H; m$ s
/ b4 H7 o: f$ P( ^
跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。
+ A I+ r5 ?, I h% {# \3 e$ D [. O/ k; U- l; ?
之于大历史周期,过去两年,全球化共识在加速撕裂,且这一加速撕裂之
6 M' g) w' i& M* _
' V+ h/ n; n6 w9 v, N于中长期,本质是不可逆的(当然,不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性)。
' o) [: ]* D& u
" t- q' J- L* S6 U而之于逻辑派生,全球化共识的加速撕裂,必然会派生出全球货币共识的加7 t2 G0 m6 E5 ]# e; M
5 @) H2 w; m7 ]& w' J( M; }4 E速崩裂,尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。
7 E- _& g4 s% r. e7 X0 B( ^' m6 Q- ?, c' B T8 `! e
确认中美货币正在加速撕裂,除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外(与- x2 a, I- P( C4 l, n
U+ Z! x" i4 o* ]全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算),还有更重要的维度,且这一更重
, U# k* y: J2 o7 a5 }- M9 C$ r3 Z$ a
要的维度,事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。, ~5 N, J1 w# Z
: u6 ^. V2 M- n! {% o2 X" p2 `: R* O& u+ `5 |. W, \: J
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 11567 小时
本月在线: 96 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 17444 小时
本月在线: 69 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 3416 小时
本月在线: 34 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 17003 小时
本月在线: 170 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 12118 小时
本月在线: 42 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 9408 小时
本月在线: 57 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 8223 小时
本月在线: 46 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 800 小时
本月在线: 6 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2147 小时
本月在线: 39 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|