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小分3种情况:
& F2 M# C7 B$ O3 o/ y$ u6 {5 O1 p8 G- Z2 ^, h
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
* Q8 v" D: w3 c/ x+ F8 i% }2 D8 K/ A
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。3 A0 c2 Z: u8 ]- O
' e& @! j: C+ A8 H. ]; l$ |# A3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。) i5 g5 V7 @; l0 |$ h
6 [0 f7 b9 ^2 u) [& {
2张牌8或9点的情况有:
1 {9 b0 X1 k" M
" ~3 E0 ]9 v2 g! D1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
( h1 d4 p# S% N' S
/ g. g% Y% |, X- z6 X6 D1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4158 x# O/ g8 e4 y4 J. a) k5 _
* m! s; ^2 b9 I
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415' X5 y3 P6 y1 O
) d: S6 t! F& w" y" X+ `8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415/ D+ @/ l3 E d& k# s& e: s% q
2 l7 R7 m2 g; y4 C' d3 z$ F2 r' @
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
4 k: R; X% n1 b+ j" i7 v
9 n" i$ @( J/ v" Y0 O0 H4 B9 c& }) h通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
' ?5 l) W2 l$ H/ `8 I
0 l+ P7 r% S: V5 J0 V& M1 _那么我们可以得出
& l5 o f H8 {/ j( i/ m1 a6 \- o4 z: f! a! @$ L+ S9 E3 V
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.1894346625 `+ C$ z* e3 J( S% r) B5 }
4 d; x5 V A. r6 F% U( J
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
& M2 E" X7 d' y' c6 J7 b, {. i! y5 J% c6 r1 A
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.0358854911 d5 N# y( V: \% n- N) n$ F' K( v! [
) l' r1 f- S: v& P0 s
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
; a$ i$ j- l/ N5 \' J; V2 O2 t
- L9 u/ N6 l0 {' s% U0 _百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.6211306779 Q* |2 @& L- r7 ]* E( E
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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